Research On Information System Security Situation Assessment Based On Interval Matrix Modification Method

With the rapid development of information technology,the information system is widely used and occupies an important position in civil aviation,healthcare,education,industrial control,finance and other industries,meanwhile,it faces increasing security risks.In order to detect potential threats timely and improve the emergency response ability of information system,the study on the information system security situation assessment model and the security situation prediction method is quite significant.Firstly,the main threats of information system security were described and the significance of security situation assessment and prediction for information system was analyzed.The research status of information system security situation assessment model and prediction model was summarized,and the basic theories and methods were analyzed as the foundation for the construction of security situation assessment model and prediction model in this paper.Then,in view of the problem of incomplete evaluation scope and subjective preference of expert evaluation in the current information system security situation assessment model,an information system security situation assessment model based on the interval matrix correction method was proposed.A three-tier assessment index system covering technical and human factors was proposed to collect multi-source data and a standardized method was designed.An interval judgment matrix correction method was proposed to improve the objective degree of the index weight vector.The entropy weight based cloud was used to obtain the quantified evaluation value of the information system security situation.Experimental results show that the assessment model has better reliability and stability.Finally,to deal with the problem of insufficient precision of multi-peak variable long-term time series prediction,a security situation prediction model based on sliding adaptive cubic exponential smoothing and time-varying weighted Markov chain correction was proposed.Based on the evaluation value sequence,a sliding adaptive cubic exponential smoothing method was used to obtain the initial prediction value sequence.The time-varying weighted Markov chain was used to predict error and correct the initial prediction value,thus improving the security situation prediction accuracy.Experimental results show that the prediction model has better adaptability and prediction accuracy.