Research On Default Risk Estimation And Mitigantion Of Changchuan Technology's Major Credit Clients

Credit sale is an important and commonly used means for enterprises to expand their competitive advantage.The ideal state of credit sale is at the cost of interest-free deferred payment in exchange for the expected income of "reducing inventory,increasing customers,expanding sales and occupying the market".However,the practice of credit business often deviates from the ideal state.Under the current environment of imperfect credit management system,downward overall economy and increasing default of capital market debt,excessive relaxation of credit policy is often accompanied by higher default risk of credit customers.Changchuan Science and Technology is a high-tech enterprise with high proportion of credit business and high customer concentration.By studying the default risk and risk mitigation of its major credit customers,this paper explores the credit management of similar credit enterprises.This paper includes two parts,estimating the default risk of Major Credit Customer and mitigating the default risk.In studying the risk estimation of major credit customers' default,by analyzing the influencing factors of credit customers' default,11 indicators reflecting the possibility of credit customers' repayment are selected from five angles: debt risk,asset quality,profitability,growth ability and sense of compliance.The weight of each indicator is determined by combining CRITIC weighting method,and then grey correlation analysis and partial large normal score are used to estimate the default probability of major credit customers.Then it studies the mitigation method of default risk of major credit customers.It includes adjusting the risk of credit revenue according to the default probability of each credit customer,carring out customer relationship management according to the credit revenue adjusted by risk,analysing the financing of accounts receivable,emergency capital guarantee and debt recovery mechanism,as well as transfering creditor's rights in the upstream and downstream of supply chain.Finally,the article puts forward some useful enlightenments for credit business management in case study and similar enterprises: reasonably controlling the proportion of credit business,grasping the double-edged sword effect of high customer concentration,systematizing credit risk management throughout the whole process,refining credit revenue and credit cost management,and maintaining sufficient financial tension.