Study On The Impact Of Population Structure On Commercial Housing Prices In Shanxi Province

The housing problem is closely related to the live of residents,Changes in housing prices will not only affect the living standards of residents,but also have a profound impact on the healthy development of the entire society and economy,In the development process of the real estate market,with the gradual deepening of China's real estate commercialization and socialization,policies for the healthy development of the real estate market are also constantly being adjusted,from loose to tight and to loose,this procedure being iterating and changing,however,the commercial housing price is showing Rising trend.In addition to socio-economic development,changes in national policies,and changes in people's thinking and other factors that affect housing prices,demanding factors are the main influencing factors on housing price changes,and population is the resource of creating housing demand.Therefore,it is necessary to analyze the relationship of housing prices and population structure.Furthermore,exploring the transmission mechanism of the impact of population structure on commercial housing prices,and providing a research paradigm for the healthy and stable development of the commercial housing market.Based on the current situation of Shanxi's population structure and the development of the commercial housing market,this paper filtrates the population structure indicators which affect the price of commercial housing by constructing the demand function and supply function of the commercial housing,and constructs a model for measuring the price of commercial housing based on equilibrium price theory.Using the population structure data and housing price data of 11prefecture-level cities in Shanxi Province.The panel data regression model was used to analyze the relationship between the population structure and commercial housing price changes in Shanxi Province from three aspects: the natural population structure,socio-economic structure,and regional structure.Based on the collection of Shanxi Province's population structure data and original housing price data from 2008 to 2018,the explanatory variables selected in this paper are gender ratio,child support ratio,old-age support ratio,family size,proportion of employees in the secondary industry,proportion of employees in the tertiary industry,per capita disposable income and the urbanization rate.There are three indicators of control variables: the investment amount of commercial housing,the construction area of commercial housing,and the bank loan interest rate.This paper establishes a panel data regression model and uses the stability test,Co-integration test,F-test and other inspection methods analyzing the data and model.The empirical research results in this paper show that the gender ratio in the natural structure of the population will have a positive impact on the price of commercial housing,while the child support ratio and the old-age dependency ratio will have a negative impact on the commercial housing prices,mainly because the increase of the population support ratio will give The labor force brings a heavy burden of support,which reduces the consumption power of residents and affects the commercial housing price;the increase in the size of households in the socio-economic structure of the population will lead to a significant decline in the price of commercial housing,the proportion of employees in the secondary industry and the tertiary industry will have a positive impact on the commercial housing prices,and the increasing in per capita disposable income will also promote the rise in prices;increasing in the level of urbanization of the population will promote the price of commercial housing by increasing the commercial housing demand.According to this paper,it is found that the population structure has a significant impact on the price of commercial housing.Therefore,in order to promote the healthy development of the commercial housing market in Shanxi Province,this paper puts forward some Suggestions from the aspects of promoting the optimization and upgrading of industrial structure,implementing the policy of talent introduction,developing the old-age housing industry,adjusting the number and type of housing scientifically and rationally,promoting the change of conception of birth and increasing the income of residents.The research could also be used for reference to promote the healthy development of the commercial housing market.