Population Mobility,Social Security And Fertility Desire

According to fertility-related survey reports and empirical studies,China's new population is lower than that of developing countries and some developed countries,and there is a tendency to continue to decline.At present,the liberalization of the two-child policy has not been effective enough.From the international experience,the continuous decline in fertility levels is the main cause of problems such as aging and imbalanced labor structure.As a large and younger group,the fertility willingness of the floating population has a crucial impact on the population size and demographic changes in China.The innovation of this paper is to combine the floating population with basic social security,to verify the impact of the floating population on the fertility willingness,to illustrate the income how to have an influence on fertility,and the most important is to explore the difference between the basic medical insurance and the pension.The fertility willingness of the floating population,including the number of willingness and gender preference,is the dependent variable and population mobility and social security are the core explanatory variables.This paper uses the data provided by the China Comprehensive Social Survey(CGSS)in 2012,2013 and2015.First,after controlling some demographic characteristics,the OLS regression is carried out on the number of willing births of the rural non-floating population and the floating population,and the binary preference logistic regression is adopted for the gender preference.In order not to ignore the influence of the number of fertility wishes on fertility preferences,the effect of the number of births on gender preference was added to the logistic regression.Secondly,in the second part,whether it has basic medical insurance and pension insurance as the core independent variables of research.To explore the role of different social security on the number of migrants' willingness to give birth and the preference of boys,path analysis and OLS and logistic respectively regressed the number of fertility wishes and gender preferences.In the path analysis,in order to solve the endogeneity of the number of fertility willingness and gender preference,a mixed model of the number of fertility willingness and gender preference will be made.In order to test the robustness of the model,regression is done to group rural migrants by age and income.Through research,it is found that:(1)The increase in income of migrants has a significant impact on fertility willingness.The income of the floating population is generally and the opportunities cost of fertility higher than that of the non-floating population.The demand for children in terms of thought and care is also lower than that of the rural non-floating population.The income of the rural non-current population is generally lower than that of the floating population.As the income increases,the consumption level also increases,and the consumption level is higher than that of the non-current population,so the fertility rate of the floating population is lower than that of the non-current population.(2)In studying the impact of basic social security on fertility willingness,it is found that social medical insurance with subsidies will have two effects: on the one hand,the relaxation of the basic social security family budget constraints enhances the family's willingness,and on the other hand,the basic social security has substitute effect to fertility desire.The empirical results show that the income effect increases the number of fertility desire,and the substitution effect makes the gender preference less.On the whole,basic medical insurance and basic pension insurance have a positive impact on the number of fertility wishes.Basic medical insurance reduces boys' gender preferences,while basic pension insurance has no significant effect on boys' gender preferences.The results also have similar results in different age groups and in different income groups.Finally,through the practical review of the investigation of the ideological status of the floating population raising children,and the suggestion of the impact of the social population on the fertility willingness based on CGSS.