Research On CGE Model Of Impact Of Technological Progress On Employment Structure In China

Employment issues are often related to the stability of social order and the development of the country.However,with the improve of national power,rapid development of economy,science and technology,especially artificial intelligence since 2016,the public fall into employment anxiety.I can't help worrying about whether artificial intelligence will widely replace human work and reduce labor demand,thereby causing difficult employment.In addition,employment is a comprehensive issue,and it will be affected by the development and react on the entire economy.Therefore,this article uses the CGE model to analyze the employment problem,and introduces capital accumulation,changes in the number of labor forces,and technical levels as policy shocks to simulate and analyze China's employment structure.The CGE model has a deep economic theoretical foundation.It simulates the operation of the entire economic system and can more truly reflect the overall situation of the economic system.Therefore,this article introduces technical factors and dynamic mechanisms to simulate the data from 2016 to 2030.First construct a CGE model suitable for analyzing China's labor employment,then build a SAM table based on the 2015 input-output table,and solve the model operation.Finally,perform data analysis based on the results of the policy simulation to draw the conclusions and recommendations of the paper.This article draws the following conclusions.First,technological progress will promote the development of the primary industry,which is conducive to promoting poverty alleviation in poverty-stricken areas,rural revitalization,and the development of new agriculture,but in the end,labor substitution still occurred.However,for the secondary industry,a large degree of labor replacement will occur in a short term,so technological innovation must be carried out according to actual conditions.Thetertiary industry has a strong ability to absorb transferred labor and stabilize employment.Therefore,we must fully explore potential industries and jobs,and be good at using technology to create more job opportunities.In addition,accelerating the development of technological reforms in the primary and tertiary industries,especially increasing the rate of technological progress in the primary industry,is conducive to the improvement of economic growth efficiency and the rationalization of the employment structure.Finally,technological progress is conducive to slowing the urban-rural income gap.Therefore,technological development will not pose a large and long-term threat to employment.On the contrary,technological development will inevitably create new opportunities for China's development,gradually improve China's employment structure,and ensure social stability.