Research On The Influence Of Fertility Policy And Population Structure On Industrial Structure

The aging population,two children in an all-round way and the upgrading of industrial structure have become hot topics.Based on the perspective of two child policy,the study of the impact of fertility policy and population structure on industrial structure is conducive to promoting the coordinated development of population structure and industrial structure.First,combing the existing literature of fertility policy,population structure and industrial structure,and then through the analysis of the current situation of fertility policy,population structure and industrial structure,combining with population control theory,dual structure theory,population optimization theory,population migration theory,population dividend theory,dual economic theory,human capital theory,coupling and coupling coordination theory,finding fertility Policy affects population structure and industrial structure by influencing fertility rate.There is a coupling and coordination relationship between population structure and industrial structure,and fertility policy can affect the coupling and coordination relationship.The panel data model is used to study the influence of fertility policy on fertility rate,fertility policy on population structure and population structure on industrial structure.The degree of interdependence between population structure and industrial structure is analyzed by coupling coordination model.Finally,the influence of fertility policy on coupling coordination degree of population structure and industrial structure is analyzed.The results show that:(1)the effect of two child policy on fertility rate is not significant,and the effect of comprehensive two child policy on fertility rate is significant in the short term.(2)The impact of the two child policy on the population structure is significantly positive,while the impact of the overall two child policy on the population structure is significantly negative.(3)The influence of population culture,space and age structure on industrial structure is significantly positive.It shows that the optimization of population structure is conducive to the adjustment of industrial structure.(4)The population structure and industrial structure in the eastern part of China are in the middle coordination stage,the central and western parts are in the primary coordination stage,and the coordination degree in the western part is lower than that in the central part.(5)The overall two-child policy has a significant negative impact on the coupling coordination of population structure and industrial structure,while the impact of the single two-child policy is not significant.Technological innovation,institutional arrangements and foreign direct investment improve the coupling coordination of population structure and industrial structure.Finally,the paper puts forward to adjust the fertility policy,pay attention to the matching connection between the fertility policy and other policies to improve the fertility rate,optimize the population structure,optimize the industrial structure,and promote the coordinated development of the population structure and industrial structure.