Research On The Impact Of Demographic Dividend Change On Manufacturing Industry Upgrade

Since the reform and opening up,China's manufacturing industry has participated in the international division of labor with the advantage of low labor cost,successfully realized the economic growth and the realization of demographic dividend,and ushered in the leap-forward development in the past 40 years.However,with the gradual narrowing of the demographic dividend window,China's population transformation comes faster than expected.First,under the background of accelerated population aging and the "lewis turning point",the quantitative demographic dividend fades away and the original comparative advantage of the manufacturing industry decreases.Second,great progress has been made in education,w:ith the level of education of workers generally rising,and the quality of the population dividend becoming increasingly prominent.Therefore,under the new conditions of profound changes in demographic dividend,exploring the mechanism of demographic dividend and manufacturing upgrading can form a benign interaction in the process of complying with demographic dividend transformation and promoting manufacturing upgrading,and provide policy support for the new path of manufacturing upgrading.First of all,on the basis of summarizing the existing research,this paper puts forward the demographic dividend change on the mechanism of the manufacturing industry upgrade,with quantitative demographic dividend is scale effect,structure effect,saving effect and consumption effect,and the latter accumulation effect,technology effect of demographic dividend,the endowment effect and agglomeration effect as the breakthrough point,from the theory of demographic dividend change on the influence of the manufacturing industry upgrade mechanism.Based on the panel data of 30 provinces(cities)in China,this paper further used OLS and quantile regression method with Stata software to investigate the impact of China's demographic dividend change on the upgrading of chemical manufacturing industry from 1996 to 2015.The empirical test results show that:first,the quantitative demographic dividend has a significant impact on the upgrading of manufacturing industry The diminishing marginal returns of the quantitative demographic dividend on the labor-intensive manufacturing industry are less than the negative impact on the capital-and technology-intensive manufacturing industry.The continuous reduction of the quantitative demographic dividend has a significant adverse effect on the upgrading of the manufacturing industry.Second,the qualitative demographic dividend plays a significant role in promoting the upgrading of manufacturing industry.This promoting effect is mainly achieved by driving the growth of technology-intensive manufacturing industry.The empirical conclusion proves that the qualitative demographic dividend is the key factor to achieve the upgrading of manufacturing industry.Finally,based on the above theoretical discussion and empirical analysis results,this paper puts forward policy Suggestions on how to coordinate the demographic dividend change and promote the manufacturing industry to upgrade.For example,by accelerating the adjustment of the existing manufacturing structure,innovation-driven upgrading of the manufacturing industry,fully developing the human resources of the elderly,implementing the stepped differential retirement age policy and other ways to transform the original development mode of the manufacturing industry,and actively deal with the decline of the quantitative demographic dividend.As well as continue to improve the quality of population dividend stock,expand the source of education investment,optimize the mode of talent training in colleges and universities,coordinate the contradiction between supply and demand of talent to improve the talent incubation mechanism,conform to the change of quality population dividend.