Study On The Survival Time Of The County Enterprises In Coastal Areas Under The Background Of New Urbanization

Since 2008,due to the influence of the financial crisis in China,China's exports have been greatly reduced and labor costs have risen.As a result,small and medium-sized enterprises in coastal areas of our country have experienced mass deaths and difficulties in survival In the world,the short survival time and low survival rate of small and medium-sized enterprises are common.Basing on the enterprises of Luoyuan County of Fujian Province between December 1,1979 and April 1,2017,this paper finds that the survival time of county enterprises is censoring data,in survival analysis,censoring data is valuable and important data.This has led many scholars to extensively study censoring data.And describing the survival curve of the overall,industrial category,enterprise category and enterprise type through the Kaplan-Meier estimator.By Cox proportional hazards model,stratified Cox model and accelerated failure-time model,this paper shows that the registered capital,industrial category,enterprise category and enterprise type have significant influence on the survival time of enterprises.The greater the registered capital,the enterprises survive longer.Enterprises in the tertiary industry are longer than others.Rural professional cooperatives are longer than private and domestic enterprises.State-owned enterprises live longer than the others.Then we use the extracted training samples to establish three kinds of classification prediction models,they are logistic regression,decision tree and k-nearest neighbors respectively.We find that logistic regression has the best prediction effect,which shows that the classification prediction model based on logistic regression can effectively predict the death of enterprises.This paper proposes that we should support the "bottleneck"of the enterprise,promote the enterprise transformation of the first and second industry,expand enterprise scale reasonably,develop the private enterprises,and so on.The aim is to stimulate the vitality of enterprises,reduce the mortality of enterprises,and realize the,common healthy growth of private enterprises and state-owned enterprises.