Statistical Analysis Of The Distribution Characteristics Of The Incidence Of Tuberculosis In China

As the loss caused by the outbreak of infectious diseases is far greater than the cost of prevention,the early prevention of infectious diseases has become a long-term research focus.According to the World Health Organization(WHO)report,1.8 million people died of tuberculosis in 2015 and 10.4 million people suffered from tuberculosis worldwide in 2016.How to reduce the number of tuberculosis deaths by 90% and the number of new cases per year by 80% between 2016 and 2035 is a difficult problem for all TB prevention and control personnel.In the prevention and control of tuberculosis,it is of great significance to analyze the epidemic data of tuberculosis and to grasp its changing regularity and distribution characteristics in formulating prevention and taking preventive measures.According to the characteristics of time and space attributes of tuberculosis epidemic data,the paper is based on spatial statistical analysis methods,using the data of tuberculosis incidence in 31 regions of China from 2004 to 2016.This paper,in turn,explores the epidemic characteristics,spatial distribution characteristics,space of tuberculosis epidemic data and difference and significance of tuberculosis influencing factors by simple descriptive statistical analysis,spatial statistical analysis and panel data model.Firstly,the epidemic characteristics and incidence of the disease are summarized in descriptive statistical analysis,such as time,season,age,region,etc.Secondly,using spatial autocorrelation,clustering analysis and trend surface analysis,combined with GIS technology,the High-High and Low-Low clustering areas of the incidence,spatial distribution differences and their time similarity change trajectories are excavated.Finally,panel models were used to explore the main influencing factors affecting the occurrence and development of tuberculosis in the three major regions of eastern,central and western regions.Statistical analysis shows that the incidence of tuberculosis varies significantly in time,season,age and region.Spatial statistical method shows that the spatial aggregation of tuberculosis in China is becoming stronger and stronger,the difference between the north and the south is not obvious,and the incidence of tuberculosis in the East and West is significant,showing an exponential curve of low East and high west;and according to functional cluster analysis,the incidence of tuberculosis in 13 years can be divided into four categories;the influencing factors in the east,middle and west regions are the same and different.The results of the study can provide quantitative basis for accurate prediction of disease incidence level and rational allocation of health resources,lay a foundation for timely and accurate early warning of tuberculosis,and explore the application value of spatial statistical methods in incidence data.