Demographic Age Structure And Consumer Credit

In 1998,China issued a series of policies to expand the scale of consumer credit and promote the development of consumer demand.After 2000,thanks to the substantial increase in the consumption of personal commodity housing and durable goods,consumer credit has achieved unprecedented development.The international financial crisis in 2008 has had a huge impact on China's economy,and consumer demand has also suffered a negative impact.At the same time,the third baby boom population has entered the stage of marriage and childbearing,and the aging of society is intensifying.According to the 2017 China consumer credit market research report,the main users of consumer credit are under 35 years old.Ageing populations have been accompanied by falling fertility rates.The imbalance of the age structure of the population is becoming increasingly serious.Can consumer credit continue to grow at a high speed?This paper tries to study this problem from the perspective of population age structure.In the context of changing population structure,scholars have noticed the influence of population structure on consumer credit.However,the existing literature studies the impact of population structure on consumer credit and takes into account the significant impact of regional heterogeneity on consumer credit.Therefore,based on the Life Cycle Hypothesis and Maslow's Hierarchy of Needs,this paper analyzes the specific mechanism of the impact of parenting pressure on personal consumption credit from the perspective of demographic age structure changes.Based on the panel data of China's 31 provincial-level administrative regions from 2007 to 2016,this paper empirically analyzes the influence of the ratio of child support to old age support on personal consumption credit by using the control variable method.The results show that there is a significant positive correlation between the child-rearing ratio and the personal consumption credit scale,and the positive effect of the child-rearing ratio on the personal consumption credit decreases successively in the eastern,central and western regions.There is a significant positive corrclation between the old-age dependency ratio and the scale of personal consumption credit,and the positive effect of the old-age dependency ratio on personal consumption credit increases successively in the eastern,central and western regions.This paper also forecasts the birth population of China in 2018-2050 under the"comprehensive two-child policy",thus deriving the effect of the national implementation of the "comprehensive two-child policy" on consumer credit.Finally,this paper starts with changing the biased effect of consumer credit on the child-rearing ratio and the old-age dependency ratio,and proposes policy Suggestions for the development of consumer credit from the perspectives of the state,financial institutions and individuals.