Mental Models Research On Risk Perception Based On Twitter Analysis–A Case Study Of Abnormal Heat In Russia

In present days when new communication technologies are spread over more and more spheres of life,social networks are becoming a rapidly growing source of information and play important role in risk communication,which is bringing new opportunities for studying different risk perceptions.The present work is focused on the analysis of interconnected natural and social risks.The aim of this research paper is observing and describing a mechanism of risk interconnectivity.In this paper,the author conducted a case study of abnormal heatwave occurred in Russia in summer 2017 and described a mechanism of risks interconnectivity based on Twitter users risk perceptions.Methods applied in the present research include Twitter network analysis,textual content analysis of tweets,based on which was build risk interconnectivity mental model of Twitter users and subsequently compared with an analogous mental model of experts.By analyzing Twitter messages with keywords “abnormal heat”,public risk perceptions were illustrated in terms of interconnected and interdepended environmental and social risks and also were found out distinctive features of a present risk communication system in Russia.According to author's observations,mechanism of risks interconnectivity is based on 8 main elements: source of the information and its characteristics;stage of the communication when the interconnectivity occurred;information leaders influenced on the interconnectivity process;keywords of the message building interconnected concepts,order of interconnectivity conception's occurrence;emotional component of information message;features of the interconnectivity: opinion-based or information-based;details of the receiver's background: expert or non-experts.The conceptual framework presented in this study can also serve as a method of risk communication assessment using microblogging social networks during natural disasters or other types of risk situations.The example of abnormal heat case showed that in Russia risk communication system is based on one-way sharing information type of communication where the main role is played by mass media agencies and characterized by the comparatively low interest of the general public to the natural risk event.