Risk Assessment Of College Students' Entrepreneurship Based On Bayesian Network

Innovation is the first impulse to the development of science and technology,Since the 18 th CPC National Congress,our country persists in implementing innovation-driven development strategy,promoting the “public entrepreneurship and innovation”,In such a wave of times,the young people have a greater chance of boarding the stage to achieve business dreams.On the one hand,it is difficult for the graduates to find jobs in the employment competition nowadays,and on the other hand they are strongly supported by the national policies.Behind the vigorous college students' entrepreneurship,the phenomenon of College Students' blind entrepreneurship and the low success rate is extremely serious.According to the current situation of university students' entrepreneurship in China,this thesis makes a comprehensive analysis of the factors that affect college students' entrepreneurial failure,and constructs a risk evaluation model of university students' entrepreneurship,so as to identify risk factors and carry out corresponding risk prevention and control measures to reduce risks.Based on the literature research and statistical analysis of domestic and foreign college students venture,From the multidimensional nature of College Students' entrepreneurship risk,the risk of university entrepreneurship is divided into four aspects of entrepreneurial environment,entrepreneurial education,core team and entrepreneurs;Then combine the qualitative analysis with quantitative analysis to identify the risk factors affecting college students venture,and use the DEMATEL-ISM method to establish the index system of college students' venture risk evaluation;On the basis,build a Bayesian network topology for the entrepreneurial risk of college students according to the causality of each factor;and determine the range of each node variables in Bayesian network and evaluation grades;add triangular fuzzy number for node variables conditional probability table in the Bayesian network inference process,after risk probability reasoning,each node variable parameters can be obtained using BNT toolbox in Matlab;Finally,take the YT technology enterprise as an example to carry out the actual evaluation.The evaluation results compared with prior results shows that the fuzzy risk evaluation of college students Bayesian network model is effective.It is a scientific and reasonable method to evaluate college students' entrepreneurial risk by fuzzy Bayesian network.which can find hidden risks in the process of entrepreneurship and provide risk prevention and control measures for college students' venture enterprises,so as to improve the success rate of College Students' entrepreneurship,and contribute to China's public entrepreneurship and innovation.