A Study On The Influencing Factors Of The Willingness To Have A Second Child Base On Data Mining

In the context of the comprehensive two-child policy,it is of great significance to study the changes and influencing factors of women's fertility desire.The family planning work in Jiangsu province started early and achieved better results;in recent years the total fertility rate of Jiangsu province has been maintained between 1.3-1.5.After the implementation of the two-child policy,questions,such as weather Jiangsu province will get out of "low fertility trap" and how the fertility of women of childbearing age has changed are of great significance.First of all,the related concepts of fertility desire are defined and reviewed in this paper.Based on the influencing factors of childbearing and the actual situation of family planning in Jiangsu province,the questionnaire is designed,using multi-stage sampling.A baseline survey of 393 women aged 20 to 35 who met the standard set by the single two-child policy was conducted in January to March of 2015,followed by a follow-up survey in January to March of 2017 with a follow-up rate of 96.7%.Secondly,based on the baseline survey data,the paper analyzes the fertility intention and its influencing factors of the ideal number of children,desired number of children and the willingness to have a second child.The analysis finds that the ideal number of children is 1.84 and desired number of children is 1.59,the proportion of the willingness to have a second child is 43.3%,but only 26.6% of them have a recent birth plan.With the increase of the age(of the wife and husband as well as marriage age),the negative effect(of them)on the willingness to have a second child will intensify.Breast-feeding,the help of children,and the satisfaction of children have a positive influence on the willingness to have a second child.Thirdly,based on baseline survey and tracking data,the research analyzes the change of reproductive intention of women of childbearing age and its influencing factors.It finds that 16.8% of women of childbearing age has been bearing or having the second children within two years,and the number of ideal and desired children in the follow-up survey are of 0.12 and 0.06 lower than the baseline survey,but the willingness to have a second child is 5.8% higher.The study finds that three fectors(the higher the wife's education,the better on the family's economic status and the combination of breast-feeding)will impose a positive influence on the willingness to have a second child.In the following part,this paper employees Decision Tree,SVM and Random Forest data mining model to predict the willingness to have a second child.It finds that the random forest model has better prediction accuracy.During the constrctuion of the model to the willingness to have a second child,The random forest model is compared with the Logistic regression models,and shows that the results by the random forest model are 2.1%,3.7%,5%,2.4% and 11% higher in accuracy,precision and recall rate,AUC valuethan when compared with the Logistic regression model,and the model to the changes of the willingness to have a second child shows that the random forest enjoys 3.74% better on accuracy,11.26% on precision and 35.98% on Press' Q value as well.The influenced factors from random forest model compeletely cover the factors from the Logistic regression model.Finally,the study discussed the above results.The data mining model explored in this study provides new perspectives for future researches.