| The population itself is a social entity that changes with time and has spatial distribution characteristics.It has both natural and social attributes,and the spatial pattern of population is the synthesis of these two attributes,which can reflect the comprehensiveness and complexity of the population problem.The essence of economic development is the dynamic and balanced evolution of the spatial distribution of the population and the development of the industry.Changes in the geographical space of the population are powerful evidence for the changes in the regional socio-economic environment.Therefore,the study of the evolution of the spatial pattern of population can serve as an important reference for the policy orientation of regional development planning and even national development strategies.In 2013,China proposed the “One Belt and One Road” initiative.Iran is an important node country on this strategic economic belt.The exchanges and cooperation between China and Iran have been continuously strengthened,and domestic scholars have begun to pay attention to the study of this hot country.The research areas mainly focus on energy,nuclear issues,geopolitics,economics and culture,but there is less systematic research on the spatial pattern of population.Therefore,the scientific research on the evolution of population spatial pattern in Iran has important practical significance for further understanding of Iranian domestic population and economic situation,as well as deep bilateral economic and trade cooperation.At the same time,as a typical example of the Middle East region,it can also enrich the relevant research in the field of world geography..Based on the study of relevant documents,this study uses Iranian statistical yearbook data,world urban population website data,and geospatial data cloud data as sources of data.It uses 31 provinces of Iran as the basic research unit,and the classification method analyzes the status quo of the spatial pattern of Iranian population in terms of population size,population density and population urbanization level.Using the disequilibrium index,population center of gravity,shift share analysis and spatial autocorrelation analysis to explore the evolution and development of the spatial pattern of Iranian population from different levels and perspectives;Using a combination of principal component analysis and qualitative assessment,the formation mechanism of Iranian population spatial pattern evolution was analyzed.Combined with the law of evolution,it will preliminarily predict the future development trend of the population space and put forward optimization suggestions.After analysis and research,the following conclusions are drawn:(1)At present,the spatial pattern of Iranian population presents three basic characteristics: Firstly,the spatial distribution of the population is extremely uneven.The provinces with large populations are located in the central and northern regions in Iran.The provinces with medium-sized populations are located in the southwest and east,while the provinces surrounding Isfahan have a small population.Second,the spatial difference in population density is extremely significant.The density difference is up to one hundredfold,showing a clear pattern of “higher in the west and lower in the east,lower in the north and higher in the south”.Third,the overall urbanization level of the population in Iran is relatively high,but the development is not uniform,showing the pattern of “declining from the Tehran region to the surrounding area”.(2)In the past 30 years,the imbalance in the distribution of Iranian population has been overall enhanced.The population center of gravity is always located in the Isfahan province in the Iranian northwest,moving slowly to the northeast and the movement in the east-west direction is dominant,so the population distribution as a whole evolves to the east.(3)According to the shift share analysis method,Iran is divided into three regions(Northwest region,Central region and Southwest region).The analysis and calculation results show that Iranian total population growth rate has weakened in the past 30 years.The population growth rate in the northwestern region is much faster than the central and southeast regions,and the population gathering ability is extremely strong.From the whole country,Migration of Iranian population is dominated by the migration of neighboring provinces or cities.(4)The population density of 31 provinces in Iran shows a high correlation in the geographical space.The provinces with high density are adjacent and the provinces with low population density are also concentrated.Judging from the changing trend,the trend of similar population density in Iran has steadily weakened over time.On the whole,the spatial evolution of the Iranian population is evident along the high-altitude plains and along the humid mountains.The provinces that fall into the low-low accumulation areas are roughly diamond-shaped in the southwest corner.The provinces that fall into the high-high concentration areas are vertically distributed on the west side of of the three provincial borders of Tehran and Qom and Mazandaran,which are located horizontally on the east and west ends of the Caspian Sea.The main bodies of the two types of transition areas are located on the north and south sides of the Isfahan Province..(5)The dominant factors in the evolution of the spatial distribution of population in different provinces and regions of Iran are different.The Greater Tehran region is greatly affected by economic and industrial development.The provinces in southeastern of Iran are greatly affected by the level of social development,while the rapidly developing provinces such as Khorasan,Isfahan and Fars are mainly influenced by social and economic factors.Water resources conditions have a significant impact on provinces with relatively abundant or extremely scarce water resources.In recent years,the development and utilization of oil and gas resources have a greater impact on the spatial pattern of population changes in the coastal provinces of the Persian Gulf.The core drivers of the spatial evolution of population in Iran include the distribution of water resources,the exploitation and utilization of oil and gas resources,regional economic strength,industrial structure and traffic-based infrastructure conditions..(6)According to the current situation of the spatial pattern of population in Iran,it is tentatively predicted that the spatial pattern of population will continue to be economically oriented for a long time in the future.At the same time,new regional growth poles continue to emerge,and population redistribution continue to evolve towards the east.Population flows in neighboring cities and regions will be strengthened.The sustainable development of Iranian population space may start with aspects such as optimization of population dispersal,adjustment of industrial structure,coordinated development of the region and establishment of relevant safeguard mechanisms. |
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