Low Fertility Under The Conditions Of Relaxing Birth Control In China

With the continuous decline in fertility levels,the population problem in China has changed from the challenge of high fertility to difficulties related to low fertility,such as aging population,low birthrate,and shortage of labor supply.Recently,China has implemented a series of progressive reforms in reproductive policy,such as “Double Two-Child Alone Policy”,“Selective Two-Child Policy”,“the Universal Two-Child Policy”.It is a positive response to this change.However,it is different from the optimistic estimate of a few scholars.Most investigations show that the reform of these birth policies are obviously “cold”,far from reaching the desired expectations.Some scholars even pointed out that currently under the pressure of economy and care,fertility demand is the key factor in determining the change in fertility rate.The policy reform,which focuses on the relaxation of fertility control,focuses on the factors of fertility supply,and it is impossible to achieve substantial results.China's population growth is facing a huge risk of “cliffing cliffs”.New family economics thinks that childbearing is a family behavior,and can bring costs and benefits to families.Therefore,differ from a large number of literature based on the factors of fertility supply,this paper analyses the mechanism of family decision making in microcosmic family from the demand of fertility,exploring the causes of the “cold” birth policy of “two-child”.It is expected that a regular understanding of low fertility in China can be obtained.Information indicates the cost of living,education and marriage,and the opportunity costs are rising rapidly,and has formed a number of family perceived birth costs pressure.Then,in a short period of time,the birth culture and the reproductive benefits determined are difficult to change dramatically.This perceived pressure on birth costs has become the key to reducing the fertility desire and inhibiting the effect of the “two-child” birth policy.So,using text analysis,this article is theoretically demonstrated that the change in birth costs and its effect on the fertility level of urban and rural families,and thus the effect of the “two-child” birth policy.Research indicates: On the one hand,the cost pressure of the “two-child” in rural families has risen rapidly,making the fertility level of the family down sharply.On the other hand,the pressure of the “two-child” in urban families has slowed down slowly,making a small increase in the level of childbearing.Then,two factors will inevitably lead to an overall decline in the fertility level of urban and rural residents.Considering that the actual fertility rate is far below the level of fertility expectation,the “cold” and “low-birth” phenomenon will be the inevitable result of this.At last,based on CFPS,this article uses DID,DDPSM and IV to overcome sample biases,missing variables,and endogenous problems,empirically verifies the changes in the cost of birth in urban and rural areas.Therefore,under the conditions of relaxing birth control,in order to change the current endogenous and willful low fertility phenomenon,and solve the problem of population growth in our country: Firstly,learning from the historical experience of Japan,South Korea and European countries,China needs to introduce childbirth incentive measures,involving economy,education and family services as soon as possible to realize the socialization of family birth costs.Secondly,these reproductive incentives not only solve the difficulties of urban families' childbearing expenditure,but also more importantly,alleviate the impact of rapid growth of family cost in rural areas.Thirdly,it is necessary to change childbearing concepts such as “late marriage and childbearing”,“less birth and childbirth”,and “a pair of couples have only one child” as soon as possible to improve the psychological benefits of childbirth,in order to eliminate the adverse effects of the continued growth in birth costs.