Research On The Impact Of Local Officials’ Replacement On Basic Public Service Expenditure

In recent years,many scholars have paid attention to the great role of local officials in economic and social development.The existing literature discusses officials’ macroeconomic,fiscal expenditure,government scale and other aspects based on the personal characteristics of officials and the exchange of officials.Due to the influence of China’s economic policy,fiscal system and political system,officials have been under the irrational incentive mechanism,and local officials compete for economic growth,resulting in serious distortion of the local government’s fiscal expenditure structure.At the same time,it should not be overlooked that China is currently at an important stage in building a service-oriented government,and basic public services are also the focus of attention at all levels of government at this stage.The government’s insufficient expenditures in the fields of education,medical care,social security and employment,housing,culture,sports and media are the main manifestations of the current shortage of basic public services in China.The reasons for its supply are many.This article mainly discusses one of them.Combined with the cadre and personnel system in China,the replacement of officials in China has become the norm.Therefore,this paper attempts to explore the impact of the replacement of local officials on local basic public service expenditures.In this context,this paper uses empirical methods to quantitatively analyze the impactof the replacement of provincial party secretary and provincial governor on the expenditure of basic public services.By constructing the dynamic panel data of 30 provinces and autonomous regions in China from 2007 to 2015 except Hong Kong,Macao,Taiwan and Tibet autonomous region,the fixed effect model and mixed OLS model were used for empirical testwith the help of Stata15.1 software.The effects of official turnover on basic public services were tested by fixed province and year with fixed effect model.By excluding province and year factors,OLS model was used to study the impact of replacement expenditure on basic public services of governors and provincial party secretaries by age and tenure.This paper attempts to test three hypotheses: first,frequent replacement of local officials will lead to a decrease in expenditure on basic public services;Second,the short-term officials have more negative influence on the expenditure of basic public services.Third,younger officials have a greater negative impact on local spending on basic public services.These three questions can not only verify the heterogeneity of local officials,but also provide a new dimension for examining the influence of local officials on the expenditure of basic public services: official turnover.Empirical tests verify the above assumptions to different degrees.The findings of this paper are robust,which can guide the adjustment of the promotion incentive system for local officials and the reform of term system under the current system in China,and also explain and enrich the relevant theories of public service from the perspective of officials.