Intelligent Endowment Service Projects’s Risk Assessment Research In Hebei Province Based On AHP-CIM Model

With the gradual deepening of China’s aging,a variety of aging problems are gradually appearing.How to reduce and deal with the risks brought about by aging has become a major topic which is actively researched by scholars from all fields.With the wide application of "Internet +" in China and a series of notable achievements,the intelligent pension system formed by the Internet plus pension has become a construction mode strongly promoted in various regions.Hebei Provincial Government has issued a series of policy documents,bringing the intelligent old-age care into the new government agenda,and vigorously supporting and promoting the intelligent old-age service projects.Under this background,AHP-CIM model is adopted to evaluate the risk of the intelligent old-age service projects in Hebei Province.Risk evaluation index system of the intelligent old-age service project has been introduced from the participants of the project by methods of field investigation,literature review and expert interviews.Further analysis and explanations of the risk factors are also mentioned in this paper.The risk of the intelligent old-age service project in Hebei Province is evaluated by experts through questionnaire.Based on the data collected from the questionnaire,the existing data are integrated and calculated,and the importance of risk indicators at all levels,namely the weight value,is calculated by AHP.For the probability distribution of risk,the CIM parallel response model is used to determine the risk probability distribution and expected value of each index.Combined with the weight value,the risk probability distribution of each index and the total risk probability of the project are calculated.Finally,the conclusion is drawn that the overall risk of intelligent endowment services in Hebei is at a lower risk level.In order to better prevent and deal with risks,11 high-risk factors is obtained in this paper by identifying the terminal risk indicators with large expected weight value,which need to be greatly prevented and managed from its source.Based on the risk assessment results,the prevention and response strategies are proposed in the last part of the paper which is to provide reference suggestions for the intelligent pension service projects in Hebei Province,and help the development of the intelligent pension industry in Hebei Province.