Beliefs,Perceptions,and U.S.North Korean Policy:A Comparative Study Of The Obama Administration And The Trump Administration

The Obama administration had employed strategic patience policy toward North Korean nuclear problem,which means that the United States would wait for North Korea to collapse or make sincere effort to denuclearize.But after President Donald Trump came to the stage,the U.S.policy toward North Korea has been changed to maximum pressure and engagement.This work focuses on the mechanism behind the changed policy toward North Korea in the Trump administration through the lens of neoclassical realism,with the research question:why is there a transition in the U.S.policy toward North Korean nuclear issue from strategic patience in the Obama administration to maximum presszure and engagement in the Trump administration?Under the framework of neoclassical realism,which attaches importance to both external and internal factors in analyzing foreign policy,this study finds that with the same global context of East Asia,the change of the U.S.North Korean policy to maximum pressure and engagement in the Trump administration from Obama's strategic patience is a result of U.S.policymakers'different foreign policy beliefs and their different perceptions of the threat from North Korea.With a globalist foreign policy belief,policymakers in the Obama administration put the maintenance of the U.S.-dominated international order,the advancement of liberal agendas,and the promotion of multilateralism as top priorities.Against this background,they downplayed the threat from North Korea and developed three wishful thoughts:North Korea would renounce its nuclear program,North Korea would implode itself,and China is responsible for the North Korean nuclear problem.Consequently,the policymakers in the Obama administration took a passive approach to North Korea's nuclear threat,which is the essence of the strategic patience policy.In contrast,the policymakers in the Trump administration held a nationalist foreign policy belief,for whom advancing U.S.national interest outweighs maintaining a liberal international order and promoting liberal agendas and multilateralism.They properly estimated the North Korean threat,set about addressing the nuclear issue,and abandoned wishful thoughts.Consequently,they took an active approach to the nuclear threat,which constitutes the rationale of the maximum pressure and engagement policy.