A Study On The Estimation Of Money Supply And Its Influencing Factors In Modern China(1887—1936)

The lack of macro and micro economic data in modern China makes it impossible for economists to use modern economic means to analyze economic problems quantitatively,which leads to the loss of accuracy and repeatability in the study of economic problems in modern China.The amount of money supply and the data related to money in modern China are important factors to analyze the transmission function of money in the process of modern economic development.On the basis of reviewing the theory of money and combing the related literature of money supply,this paper generalized money supply from 1887 to 1909 through the basic money and money multiplier according to the formula of money multiplier,and verifies the estimation results according to the classification of money levels,so as to ensure that the estimated data has a high credibility.In addition,it establishes models and conducts empirical research.This paper studies the influence mechanism of relevant factors on the money supply from 1887 to 1935.Through the research results of this paper,it is found that:(1)Money supply in1887-1909 is estimated.According to the formula of money multiplier,based on the data of basic money and money multiplier from 1887 to 1909 and the data of money supply estimated by Professor Thomas G.Rawski and Professor Liu Wei,the generalized money supply from 1887 to 1936 was obtained,and the data estimated was verified by using modern measurement method,which ensured that the research result had high reliability.From the estimation results,the general money supply in modern China was on the rise.Before 1916,the change of money supply was small.After 1917,the increase of money supply accelerated.(2)This paper analyzes the influencing factors of money supply in modern China.In modern China,the money supply is not only not controlled by the central government,but also influenced by exogenous factors.In the supply constrained economic situation,the factors influencing the money supply come from the supply side.By analyzing the influencing factors of money supply before the Reforms of Chinese Legal Money,the main influencing factors of the money supply from 1887 to 1935 are: export,overseas Chinese remittance,international silver price and economic prosperity.