The Old Evidence Problem Study

Bayesian method,one of the most popular scientific methodologoies during 20th century,has flexibility,simplity and extensive explanatory power and other advantages,which has gradually had wide development and application in many areas.In particular,Bayesian Confimation Theory,the centry theory of confirmation,has been deeply applied and developed in scientific examination.It has resolved many problems while some other problems appeared.The Old Evidence Problem is one of those challenges for the rationality of Bayesian Confirmation Theory,this problem has revealed that under the interpretation of the Bayesian Framework,old evidence can't confirm new hyphothsis,as opposed to that old evidence actually and intuitively can bring confirmation for new hyphothsis.The Problem of Old Evidence,presented by Glymour in 1980,has been a great chanllenge for the rationality of Bayesian Confirmation Theory.Since the Problem of Old Evidence was raised,it has attracted much attention.The Old Evidence Problem is not only related to the reasonableness of Bayesian Confirmation Theory,but also to the rational basis of cognitive subjects.On the one hand,the Old Evidence Problem has challenged Bayesian Confirmation Theory itself and its application,it leads many paths for the development of Bayesian Confirmation Theory on the other hand.It turns out so many values and meanings in virious levels to card the concepts in the confirmation theory,to improve scientific methodologies and develope inductive logic.The Old Evidence Problem is not a single problem,simplely speaking,it can be divided into the Static Old Evidence Problem,the Dynamic Old Evidence Problem and the Compositive Old Evidence Problem.Reasons of the Old Evidence Problem involve various aspects,so a variety of solutions to the problem have been proposed,most representative ones are Howson's Counterfactual Strategy and Garber's Learning Strategy.The former one centres on the Static Old Evidence Problem while the latter the Dynamic Old Evidence Problem.On the basis of those two classical strategies,many new strategies have been put forward.There are methods of combining AGM theory with Counterfactual Strategy,introducing context factor to the Conterfactual Strategy and so on for the Static Old Evidence Problem.For the Dynamic Problem,there are a series of methods based on Learning Strategy called GJNE strategies.In addition,connections Conterfactual Strategy with Learning Strategy are another kind of methods,as well it is a good idea to analyze the Compositive Old Evidence Problem from the aspect of the dynamic cognition,which constructs the corresponding dynamic cognition model to resolve the problem.This article analyses the Old Evidence Problem and the related concepts,in order to estimate resolutions for the problem in different aspects.However,all those resolutions have their own views with advantages and disadvantages,the academic community has never been able to reach an agreement on these disputes.Therefore,it is very important to propose the resolving standards of the Old Evidence Problem,so that we can make a fair evaluation and comparison among them.This paper makes a brief comparison of the Old Evidence Problem and the Logic Paradox,and then applies the "RZH"Criterion,which is the evaluation standard of the logic paradox resolution,for the principle of the Old Evidence Problem.It hasn't made an agreement among the academic community that what can be called an absolute resolution for the Old Evidence Problem.Whether the solution of the Old Evidence Problem can be questionable also reflects its advantages and disadvantages,and so called effective solutions not completely aim to solve the problem,which is actually impossible.One solution needs to be based on the concept of "clarifying the concept,clarifying the level,cleaning up the contradiction,strictly deducing the scientific concept",that is,to clarify the old evidence related concepts,to distinguish the direction of the study in which the level of the problem,then propose solutions.The purpose of the program is not only in its own coherence,but also on the question of questioning,testing,and the need for a clear understanding of the concept and philosophical explaination.