Research On Film Investment Value Evaluation Based On Ordered Logit Model

The film industry is an investment-intensive and high-risk industry,it occupies important position in the national economy.In recent years,with the promotion of industry policies,capital from all walks of life has flooded into the film industry.Film investment has been in an upsurge,but the investment results are not optimistic.The investment success rate is extremely low,resulting in a lot of capital wastage,which is often due to investor those who are too eager for success and benefit have not conducted scientific assessment of the value of the film project resulting in the proliferation of low-value films.This situation is not conducive to the effective allocation of funds,nor is it conducive to the development of the film industry.Therefore,assessing the investment value of movie projects can be used as an effective means to reduce the risk of movie investment.Before investing in films,if investors conduct scientific and comprehensive analysis of the investment value of movie projects,they can improve Investment success rate to some extent.Based on the systematic review of related domestic and foreign researches,the article combines the basic situation of China's film industry,the particularity of movie investment,and the investment risk,makes an in-depth analysis of the factors that influence the investment value of the film,and seeks to an value assessment model that suitable with our country.At present,whether a movie can get a high ticket price depends more and more on the quality of the movie and its promulgation.This,together with the insensitivity and exclusiveness of movie products to prices,makes the evaluation of film investment value of great significance.The production of movie content is mainly done by the main creative team,and the release aspect pays more attention to the release time.The article establishes a multi-ordered Logit model,and use director,actor,the same type of movie box office within three years,expected release date,sequel,and movie type as explanatory variable.Then,use the rating idea to set the critical value to classify the movie and examine the probability that the movie falls on each level,so as to judge the level of movie investment value according to the movie level.Besides,the article use the case analysis to verify the validity of the assessment model.The research results show that the director and the actor can improve the investment value of the film to a certain extent,but its influence is diminishing.The type of film has a greater impact on the evaluation of investment value.Comedy,action,and magic are more conducive to the movie's high box office.In addition,the sequels and films released during the golden period have good publicity conditions and have a positive impact on the investment value of films.Investors'main revenue comes from box office splits,but the movie release time is extremely short.This sales model makes public choices and short-term market effects become factors that determine the success of movie investment.To reduce the waste of funds and optimize the film investment market,when investing in films,investor should use scientific analysis methods and select high-quality projects to reasonably prevent investment risks.