| The development of China’s film industry has gradually risen to the strategic position of economic and social development,since the country promoted the cultural industry to become a pillar industry of the national economy.The film industry promotion law,which was implemented in March 2017,stipulates that the state encourages financial institutions to promote the development of the film industry through credit.Therefore,under the support of cultural industry and a series of dividend policies such as taxation,idle funds from finance,real estate and other industries have been invested in the production of films,which has promoted the rapid development of China’s film industry.However,the film industry is a typical capital-intensive industry,with the characteristics of large investment amount,irreversible capital investment and high risk and high return,which makes investors face greater investment risk.The high investment risk of China’s film industry mainly comes from the uncertainty of the evaluation of film products by the investors.In the case of unable to accurately estimate the film products,in order to ensure the success of investment,they can only focus on large and mature film enterprises,resulting in small living space for medium and micro film enterprises,which is not conducive to the all-round development of China’s film industry.Therefore,under the background of the difficulty of financing in the whole film industry,how to find the important risk factors that affect the box office income of the film,and guide the film enterprises to avoid risks in a series of processes,such as pre planning,film production and publicity screening,has become an important problem to be solved in the rapid development of China’s film industry.The box office of film is the main source of revenue of film products.According to the theory of "risk-income",reasonable box office prediction is of great significance to investors and film enterprises.The investment risk of China’s film industry is not only related to the micro level of film production,marketing,distribution and release,but also related to the macro level and technical level of relevant policies,audience demand,network diversion,technical level improvement and other factors.This paper studies the investment risk and box office prediction of China’s film industry,focusing not only on the macro level policy,demand and competition,but also on the micro level production,marketing and layout,as well as the technical level diversion,piracy and word-of-mouth.In this way,the macro and micro level can be organically combined with the technical level,and the one sidedness that may be caused by only analyzing from the micro level can be avoided.This paper includes eight chapters.In addition to the introduction of Chapter 1.Chapter 2 and Chapter 3 are the research basis of this paper.Chapter 4,Chapter 5,Chapter 6 and Chapter 7 are the investment risk analysis and box office revenue prediction of the film industry based on the macro level,micro level and technical level respectively.Chapter 8 is the conclusion and corresponding suggestions.The main contents and conclusions are as follows:（1）Based on the macro level analysis.Based on the daily high-frequency film box office data from January 1,2011 to December 31,2019,this paper constructs garch-evt-pot-gpd model to analyze the cyclical and asymmetric characteristics of box office yield fluctuation,and analyzes the value at risk of box office prediction results.Then,based on the annual sample data from 2006 to 2019,this paper discusses the impact of residents’ income level and consumption structure on domestic film box office.The results show that the fitting effect of each model is ideal and the parameter estimation of each model has little change range.The predicted values have obvious time-varying characteristics,the real value fluctuates less,the predicted value fluctuates little,and the real value fluctuates greatly when the real value fluctuates.With the improvement of confidence level,the average value of VaR increases,and the growth rate of the confidence level from 95%to 99%is generally faster than that of the confidence level from 90%to 95%.It indicates that when the confidence level is high,the sensitivity of Dynamic Var measurement based on GARCH model is obviously improved.In addition,the lipstick effect and Maslow’s hierarchy of demand theory are verified by the annual urban data from 2006 to 2019.（2）Based on the analysis of micro level.The paper sets the box office prediction model by arbitrage pricing theory,collects 1441 movie data with box office of more than 1 million in 2010-2019,analyzes the influence of important risk factors such as film type,film schedule,distribution company and director influence on the box office of films,and forecasts 153 movie box office in 2019.The empirical results show that the influence of different film types and different release schedule on the box office of the film is heterogeneous;the film has higher requirements on the strength of directors and actors,while the beauty and flow of actresses may be more important than acting skills;the parameters of distribution company,3D effect,sequel and IP are significantly positive.The results of box office prediction of 153 films in 2019 show that the prediction error of over 90%of the box office can be controlled within 30%,and the prediction error of over 80%of the films can be controlled within 20%,and the overall prediction effect of the model is relatively reliable.（3）Based on the analysis of technical level.This paper expounds the development process of network film,the diversion of cinema film and the leading position of cinema film.Influenced by COVID-19,a space for one person has been closed for half a year,while online movies have been growing blowout.The movie box office has gradually gained close share in the movie and TV market.For film producers,landing in theaters is the way to maximize the profits of a film,and landing online directly means giving up the offline market with unlimited potential.Therefore,although the network film will have a certain diversion risk to the cinema film,the cinema film is still in the dominant position.The main innovations of this paper include:（1）based on the macro level,micro level and technical level,this paper constructs the theoretical main line of the research on the investment risk and box office revenue of the film industry,and forms the theoretical system of "risk return",which makes up for the deficiency of the relevant theoretical system of China’s film industry.（2）Drawing on the idea of "Market Efficency Hypothesis",this paper studies the index of "daily box office" for the first time.It fills an academic gap by using volatility analysis.（3）At the micro level,the film is regarded as a risky asset and the multiple linear regression model is built on the basis of arbitrage pricing theory,which is also an innovation of the text... |
PDF Full Text Request