Application Of Agent Model In Hand Foot And Mouth Disease:

Hand foot and mouth disease(HFMD)is an infectious disease caused by a variety of enteroviruses,which causes great damage to human health and hinders social and economic development.Therefore,it is of great significance to simulate the transmission process of HFMD.In this paper,on the basis of understanding the epidemiological characteristics of HFMD,an agent model of spatial-temporal transmission of HFMD was constructed by using agent technology combined with GIS to effectively simulate the spatial-temporal transmission process of HFMD in Xining city,and intervention measures were analyzed.The main research work of this paper is as follows:1.The epidemiological principles of hand,foot and mouth disease are described,and it is determined to use the SEIR infectious disease transmission model with incubation period to study the spread of hand,foot and mouth disease.Using agents and GIS technology to form a research idea of the spatiotemporal propagation agent model of hand,foot and mouth disease,the complex interaction activities of the crowd in the real geographic space are abstracted into the interaction activities of several agents in the GIS geographic space.2.Design the state category,attribute characteristics,movement rules,state transition rules and environment of the Agent in the model,and analyze the differences between the working occupations and rest days of the two occupational groups(child care children and diaspora children)aged 0-5 years old Movement rules,and the influence of different states of Agent on movement rules.Designed for schools for kindergarten children and hospitals for infected people.On the basis of understanding the transmission characteristics of hand-foot-mouth disease,following the principle of heterogeneity,the incubation period of the Agent is set to 2-7 days with a mean value of 4.5 and a normal distribution with a variance of 1.2.The infection period is 7-10 days with a mean value of 8.5 The normal distribution with a variance of 2.2,the time for medical treatment is 1-3 hours,the mean is 2,and the normal distribution with a variance of 0.5.3.Using the Java programming language,a hand-foot-and-mouth disease spatio-temporal propagation agent model was built on the Repast S simulation platform to simulate the transmission process of hand-foot-and-mouth disease in children aged 0-5 in Xining in 2009.Using the Latin hypercube sampling method,MSE is used as an indicator to estimate the parameters of the model and determine the optimal parameter combination of the model:the contact distance is 89m,the infection rate is 0.59,the range of activity of the diaspora children on working days is within 4.3km,and the range of activity of all children on the rest day is within 9.94km.4.Analysis of vaccine intervention measures on the results of the model.The vaccination time is set to February,the vaccine coverage rate is 20%and 40%,and the effective rate is 80%.The injection is completed within one week,and the effective time is March.The results show that when the vaccine coverage rate is 20%,the daily number of new onsets rises more slowly than before the vaccine is added,and the overall daily new incidence rate decreases.When the vaccine coverage rate is 40%,the model daily new incidences The trend has been flattening,indicating that vaccination has a great effect on the control of hand,foot and mouth disease outbreaks,and the higher the vaccine coverage,the better the effect.