Research On The Financing Scale Of The Elderly Long-term Care Insurance System In China

The social aging has gradually increased and the elderly population has shown a rapid growth trend since the 21 th century.Nevertheless,the birth rate of our country has gradually decreased and the family has tended to be smaller,resulting in the increasing social dependency ratio of overall elderly population.The acceleration of China’s urbanization process has led to a trend of rural labor force moving into cities,cross-province population movement of urban labor force and high female participation rate in employment.Some family structures have shown a trend of differentiation,hence the care function of the elderly undertaken by some families has gradually weakened.Along with the rapid development of medical technology,the great improvement of living standards and the continuous enhancement of people’s health awareness,the average life span of the elderly in China will be prolonged in the future.As a high-risk group with disability,their demand for care services will increase rapidly,bringing economic burden and care pressure to their families to a certain extent.If the government cannot issue relative policies of guidance and management timely and reasonably,it may cause a series of social issues in the future.Based on such background,this thesis plans to calculate the financing scale of China’s long-term care insurance for the elderly,and predict the amount of funds for them to obtain appropriate care services when China meets the challenges of aging in the future.By sorting out and summarizing the financing practice of long-term care insurance for the elderly in the pilot cities in China,this thesis aims to analyze the current situation and financing situation of long-term care insurance system in China’s pilot cities,and provides theoretical reference for the subsequent calculation of the financing scale of long-term care insurance.Based on the data of China’s Health and Care for the Elderly Tracking Survey(CHARLS)in 2013 and 2015,this paper analyzes the demand for long-term care services for the elderly aged 60 and above in China according to the disability degree of the elderly,the choice of care environment and the cost of different environmental care services.The Markov transition probability model is adopted to predict the number of disabled elderly in China in the future,and the ILO model is constructed based on the fund horizontal balance method.The financing scale and contribution rate of China’s long-term care insurance from 2017 to 2052 are calculated based on the set usage ratio of different care environments,usage ratio of different care methods,different care service costs and the predicted total wages of future Chinese employed personnel.In accordance with the above theoretical analysis and practical calculation,and in view of the financing problem of China’s long-term care insurance for the elderly,this thesis has proposed the corresponding reasonable suggestions from the perspectives of responsibility subject,financing mechanism,fund operation and system positioning in the last part.