The Pubic Medical Care Hospitalization Expenses Prediction And Management Strategy Optimization Research Based On Time Series Model

China's public medical care system has played an important role in guaranteeing the medical health of personnel in state organs and public institutions.It is the last bastion of the planned economy era.At present,the public medical care system does not adapt to the market economy system.The high medical expenses bring heavy burden to the finance,but the medical satisfaction can not reach the expected effect,so we have to force the reform of the public medical care system.The pubic medical care hospitalization expenses is high,but the effect is not good.It's hard to regulate.Due to the asymmetry of medical service information,the public medical management department needs to use scientific management tools to judge the rationality of medical expenses.Time series model can predict hospitalization expenses,provide effective reference for cost management,analyze management problems and causes,and optimize management strategies.This study base on the pubic medical care hospitalization expenses data in 2015 to 2018,from a district of GUANGZHOU.Set up time series model,track was studied for the hospitalization expenses data,found that the periodic change law of cost of monitoring point and forecast,analyze the hospitalization expenses management issues.The research results show that the time series model has a good fitting degree and a strong interpretation of the predicted data,which can be used as one of the basis for reference and provide a key supervision direction.In this study,the main problems existing in the management of hospitalization expenses are backward system,consistent regulations,lagging means,fixed settlement methods and lack of effective cycle management.Based on the excellent management experience,this paper puts forward 5 Suggestions to optimizing management strategy,one is strengthening cycle management,the second is establish the system of tiered medical services,the third is promoting the combination of medical treatment and endowment,the fourth is bring in social forces,and the last one is break system obstacles to ensure the smooth transition of public medical care system.