| Objective:(1)Describe the basic characteristics of road traffic injuries in Ma'ans han City;(2)using the distributed lag nonlinear model to analysis the effect of average temperature on road traffic injury;(3)To explore the effect of humidex on road traffic injury and the lag effect between them.(4)To explore the effect of the humidex on road traffic injury in different groups of age,gender,severity of injury and cause of injury.Method: The data of road traffic injury cases in Ma'anshan City from 2007 to 2017 and the meteorological data of the same period were collected.The time series of road traffic injuries and meteorological factors in the same period were sorted out.The distributed lag nonlinear model was used to analysis of the relationship between humidex and road traffic injury,subgroup analysis was carried out according to sex,age and severity of injury and cause of injury.Result:(1)A total of 43,830 cases of road traffic injuries were collected in this study.Of them,male cases were 23,685 male,female ones were 20,145.Male to female ratio was 1.18:1.The number of cases of road traffic injuries ? 14 years old was 2,898,the year between 15 and 64 were 37,625,and aged ?65 years was 3,307.The number of motor vehicle accident injury was 24,914,non-motor vehicle accident injury was 18,916;In addition,the number of mild injury,moderate injury,severe injury were 32,196,10,613 and 1,021,respectively.(2)Using the median humidex(20.3)as a comparison benchmark,Non-linear relationship was found between humidex and road trafficinjuries,the overall risk effect displayed the trend of going up first and then down with the increase of humidex.(3)Using the lowest risk humidex(-11.5)as a comparison benchmark,the risk effect displayed the trend of going up first and then down with the increase of humidex,but the overall risk effect is statistically significant.The humidex of 25 percent(7.5)compared with the lowest risk(-11.5),the adverse effect of humidex(25 percentile of humidex)was the largest on the day of exposure(P25: RR=1.102(1.010-1.201)),and ended in 5-days lag.Subgroup analysis found that within a period of0 to 5 days,the humidex had a risk effect on both male and the 15-64 year-old group,but had no statistical significance on the group of ?14 years and ?65 years.Compare the group in male,female are not sensitive to the changes of humidex,and the female group appeared harmful effects only on the fourth day of lag.It was also found that mild injury,moderate injury and non-motor vehicle accident injury were more sensitive to the humidex,while the humidex had no significant effect on the severe injury.The impact of the 90 percent of humidex(39.5)on road traffic injuries in the general population is also the largest on the day of exposure(P90: RR=1.134,95%CI:(1.028-1.252)),and then it gradually decreases,and the effect continues until the end of the 4th day.The effects of the male group and the 15-64 year-old group are the same as the general population group,the effect continues until the end of the 4th day.In addition,no significant effects have been found for female groups,younger than 15 years old,older than 64 years old,motor vehicle accident injury and severe injury.Conclusions: The study found that the humidex is associated to the risk of road traffic injuries and has a lag effect.Simultaneously,the subgroup analysis found that the male population and the age group of 15-64 years were more susceptible to the effects of humidex,in addition,the humidex will increase the risk of non-motor vehicle injury and mild injury,so protective measures for susceptible people should be strengthened to reduce the risks caused by the humidex. |
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