Research On Risk Evaluation Of Public Hospital PPP Project

The medical and health industry has always been a livelihood issue that our country pays close attention to.While the national economic income of our country has generally increased,people's demand for medical services has been increasing.However,due to budget constraints and other reasons,the government has insufficient or uneven investment in the medical and health industry.The PPP model can effectively attract social capital,realize the complementary advantages of the public and private sectors,and become the primary choice for the current construction of public hospital projects.In recent years,China has comprehensively promoted and standardized the PPP model,and has successively introduced a series of policies to encourage and develop social medical services.With the continuous deepening of the reform of investment and financing of public services and the reform of the medical and health system,the application of the PPP model in the medical industry,especially in public hospital projects,has developed rapidly.Risk is objective and unavoidable.Risk is one of the necessary topics for public hospital PPP projects.The risks of public hospital PPP projects include both the risk characteristics of the PPP model and the risk characteristics brought about by the complexity of the public hospital project itself.They are highly specialized,have a long life cycle and many stakeholders,and their risks are more complex and changeable.How to identify these risk factors and evaluate project risks scientifically and reasonably is an urgent problem to be solved in the risk management of public hospital PPP projects.In view of the above situation,this article takes public hospital PPP projects as the research object,through the domestic and foreign research review,understands the current status of domestic and foreign research related to public hospital PPP project risk assessment,then the PPP model,public hospital PPP project related theories were elaborated,and the risk problems of public hospital PPP project in China were analyzed.On this basis,through comparative analysis of existing risk identification methods,literature analysis and checklist method and questionnaire interview survey method were selected to identify risks in public hospital PPP projects,and a list of risk factors was formed.Through the questionnaire survey and using SPSS 25 data processing software to carry on the descriptive statistical analysis and the exploratory factor analysis to the questionnaire data,extracts the common factor,the Risk Evaluation Index System of Public Hospital PPP project is constructed,which includes 7 first-class risk indexes and 26 second-class risk indexes.Based on the introduction of risk evaluation methods,combined with the ambiguity of public hospital PPP project risks and the characteristics of no obvious boundaries,a fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method was selected for public hospital PPP project risk evaluation.In terms of weight allocation of the risk evaluation index system,a rough set is introduced to calculate the weight of the risk index.Rough set has strong objectivity,does not require prior knowledge and experience,and can well avoid the interference of subjective factors,but the weight differentiation is poor;the variation coefficient method directly calculates the weight of the indicator data based on expert scores,and the weighted results are highly differentiated.Can compensate for the shortcomings of weighting by the rough set method,and the rough set can also make up for the shortcomings of the weighting method of the variation coefficient method that does not comprehensively consider the decision attributes and ignore the relationship between the child indicator and the parent indicator.Therefore,this paper combines the two weights to ensure the rationality of the weight allocation.Then the application calculation process of combined weight and fuzzy comprehensive evaluation is introduced respectively,and the risk evaluation model of public hospital PPP project is constructed.Finally,the risk evaluation model was used to carry out a risk evaluation on the case project,and the project's risk level and the importance of the risk index were obtained,and corresponding countermeasures and suggestions were proposed for important risk factors.