Evaluation And Prediction Of Primary Nursing Human Resources Allocation In Bengbu City

Objective:1.To investigate the allocation of primary nursing human resources in Bengbu.2.To evaluate the fairness of primary nursing human resource allocation in Bengbu.3.Forecast the demand of primary nursing human resources in Bengbu city in the recent five years(2019-2023)under the current policy promotion.Methods:By referring to the 2010 ~ 2019 China Statistical Yearbook,the 2010 ~ 2019 China Health Statistical Yearbook,the 2010 ~ 2019 Anhui Statistical Yearbook,and the 2010 ~ 2019 Bengbu Statistical Yearbook,to obtain data on primary nursing human resources in China,Anhui province and Bengbu city.With Excel 2010,data entry and processing,Lorentz curve drawing,calculation of Gini coefficient and Theil index were completed.The prediction and inspection of the GM(1,1)gray model was performed in MATLAB R2016 b.The SPSS 25.0 and Eviews 10.0 were used to implement the prediction and inspection of the ARIMA model.In EXCEL 2010,a weighted combination prediction model was constructed by combining the above two models.Results:1.From 2009 to 2018,the number of beds,health technicians,licensed(assistant)doctors and registered nurses in primary health care institutions in Bengbu City increased.The beds rose from 2,989 to 3,813;the number of health technicians increased from 4,117 to 4,401;and the number of licensed(assistant)doctors rose from1,608 to 2127;the number of nurses rose from 1,051 to 1,559.2.From 2009 to 2018,the number of primary health care institutions and health personnel in Bengbu City has shown a downward trend.The number of primary health care institutions dropped from 1619 to 1,224,and the number of health personnel dropped from 8,483 to 7,134.3.The Gini coefficient of the registered nurses in Bengbu City according to population distribution is 0.06,which is highly fair;the Gini coefficient distributed according to geographical area is 0.24,which is fairly fair.The total Tyre Index of the registered nurses in each county(district)in Bengbu City is 0.003 according to population and 0.065 according to geographical area.4.According to the forecast result of the weighted combination forecast model,the number of registered nurses at the grassroots level in Bengbu City will reach 1612,1692,1774,1860 and 1950 in the next five years(2019-2023).Conclusion:1.The number of beds,health technicians and licensed(assistant)doctors in primary health care institutions in Bengbu City increased from 2009 to 2018,but there is still a gap from the goal set by the country.2.From 2009 to 2018,the number of primary health care institutions and health personnel in Bengbu City showed a downward trend,which is opposite to the national development trend.3.The number of primary nursing human resources in Bengbu City increased from2009 to 2018,but the level of allocation was low.4.The fairness of primary registered nurses in Bengbu City by population distribution is better than that by geographical area.5.Difference in per capita GDP between regions may lead to unfair distribution of primary nursing human resources in each county(district)by population andgeographical area.6.The number of primary nursing human resources in Bengbu City will increase in the next five years,but there is still a gap between the targets set by Anhui Province and the state.