| Objective: The purpose of this study was to explore the correlation between meteorological factors and the first aid of heavy drinkers,to clarify the effect differences among different groups,and to provide theoretical basis and suggestions for the mobilization of first aid resources and the development of prevention and control strategies of drinking hazards in Shenzhen.Methods: Using the 120 first aid data of Shenzhen from 2013 to 2017,we obtained the 120 first aid information of 59,274 over-drinkers.Through the time series analysis,the distribution lag nonlinear model between the meteorological factors and the daily firstaid amount of the heavy drinker was established,the influence effect of the meteorological factors on the first-aid amount was quantified,and the effect difference of the meteorological factors on the different subgroups was analyzed.At the same time,according to AIC criterion and residual autocorrelation function,the sensitivity analysis of air pressure,temperature,relative humidity,wind speed,sunshine and other factors with different degrees of freedom was conducted to evaluate the reliability of the model.Results :(1)From 2013 to 2017,the total number of 120 first aid cases in Shenzhen was 681,318.Among them,the number of first aid cases of heavy drinkers was 59,274,accounting for 8.70% of the total number of first aid cases,and showed an increasing trend year by year.The ratio of male to female was 7.56 to 1.The age of heavy drinkers was mainly between 15 and 44 years old,accounting for 86.37% of the total emergency medical aid of heavy drinkers.(2)There is a highly negative correlation between average air pressure and average temperature(r=-0.841,P<0.01),while the correlation between relative humidity,wind speed,sunshine and other meteorological factors is weak(r <0.5).(3)Univariate analysis showed that low atmospheric pressure(RR=0.919,95%CI:0.846~0.998),short sunshine(RR=0.838,95%CI:0.743~0.946),low wind speed(RR=0.916,95%CI:0.851~0.985),and high wind speed(RR=0.978,95%CI: 0.957~1.000)had protective effects on the occurrence of excessive drinking.Low temperature(RR=1.041,95%CI:1.011~1.070)and high temperature(RR=1.219,95%CI:1.111~1.337)presented a risk effect on the occurrence of excessive drinking.(4)The results of multivariate analysis showed that short sunshine(RR=0.745,95%CI: 0.635~0.875)and high wind speed(RR=0.955,95%CI:0.924~0.986)had protective effects on the occurrence of excessive drinking.High barometric pressure(RR=1.131,95%CI:1.011~1.266),high relative humidity(RR=1.167,95%CI:1.047~1.302),and high temperature(RR=1.201,95%CI:1.088~1.326)presented a risk effect on the occurrence of excessive drinking.(5)the results of subgroup analysis showed that low pressure(RR=1.134,95%CI:1.006~1.279)and high pressure(RR=1.254,95%CI: 1.072~1.466)presented a risk effect on women.Hyperbaric pressure(RR=1.128,95%CI:1.001~1.270)presented a risk effect in men.High relative humidity(RR=1.176,95%CI:1.050~1.318)and high temperature(RR=1.215,95%CI:1.095~1.347)presented a risk effect on men.Short sunshine(RR=0.745,95%CI:0.630~0.883)and high wind speed(RR=0.956,95%CI:0.921~0.993)showed protective effects on males.Low pressure(RR=1.133,95%CI:1.031-1.246),high relative humidity(RR=1.309,95%CI:1.120-1.530),high temperature(RR=1.410,95%CI:1.180-1.685),short sunshine(RR=0.701,95%CI:0.578-0.851),and high wind speed(RR=0.946,95%CI: 0.899-0.995)had a protective effect on the age group of 15-29.High pressure(RR=1.245,95%CI:1.087~1.424)and high temperature(RR=1.118,95%CI: 1.004~1.245)presented a risk effect on the population aged 30~44 years,and short sunshine(RR=0.680,95%CI:0.561-0.824)presented a protective effect on the population aged 30~44 years.Low temperature(RR=1.563,95%CI:1.091~2.240)presented a risk effect in the age group from 45 to 59 years old.Conclusion: From 2013 to 2017,the first aid amount of excessive drinkers in Shenzhen showed an increasing trend year by year.In addition,the first aid amount in summer and winter was higher than that in spring and autumn,and the number of men was much higher than that of women.The influence of meteorological factors on the first aid amount of heavy drinkers cannot be ignored,and the effects of different meteorological factors on different groups are also different.Therefore,it is necessary to strengthen the health education on the harm of drinking among people aged 15-44 years,especially men,and to formulate relevant measures for emergency treatment of excessive drinking in combination with meteorological factors such as high air pressure,high relative humidity and high temperature. |
