| BackgroundMalaria is a high incidence of insect-borne infectious disease. It can be infected by anopheles bites or blood transfusion, while at present the most common way is spread by anopheles bites. The plasmodium can parasitize in liver, and then the red blood cell was infected. The typical clinical symptoms include headache, fever, vomiting. The incubation of malaria was 10 to 15 days. If failed to get timely and effective treatment, the life may be over because of the vital organs may lose blood. At present both in China and Africa had made great achievement in malaria control. In 2010, our country put forward the<China eliminate malaria action plan (2010-2020)>. At present, our country to malaria control is no longer to reduce the malaria outbreaks, but completely elimination. So we need to do more specific analysis about the influence factors of malaria, looking for a more accurate method, in order to achieve the most effective utilization of resources, lay a solid foundation for the elimination of malaria. At the same time, provide methodological guidance for other infectious disease research.ObjectiveTo describe malaria spatial, temporal and population distribution in Anhui province.To explore its space aggregation, and find out cities with a high incidence of malaria in Anhui province.To further explore the relationship between meteorological factors and the malaria incidence.MethodsCollect data about malaria incidence, population, and location in Anhui province.Using SatScan to explore hot spots, and peak time.Distributed lag nonlinear model is adopted to explore the relationship between the meteorological factors and malaria incidence, find out the best lag days. The modification effect of rainfall and temperature was further discussed by generalized additive modelsResultsMalaria incidence in Anhui province from January 2005 to June 2014 declined on the whole. Spatial cluster and time cluster gradually became not obvious.SatScan shows the incidence of malaria in Bozhou is most serious. So Bozhou city was chosen to be further explored the relationship between meteorological factors and malaria incidence.Significant and positive correlations were found between temperature (-5°～30°) and malaria incidence. The delayed effect was the most strong at lags 1-3 weeks. When the temperature was 26° and at lag of 10 week, the cumulative was most strong; with 0mm rainfall capacity as reference, no statistical immediate effect was found. The DLNM analyses revealed that the lag range decrees with the increase of rainfall capacity. In case of 30mm rainfall capacity, the correction gets significant during 3-7 weeks, peaking at the sixth week; with the lowest relative humidity 31% as reference, no significant relationship between relative humidity and immediate effect was found. When the lag was 4 weeks, the relative risk was highest, while the relative risk was almost to zero when the lag was 10 weeks. With the increase of relative humidity, the cumulative relative risk of malaria increase after decreased first. When the relative humidity was 62% and lag 10 weeks, the cumulative effective was highest.ConclusionThe overall trend of malaria incidence in Anhui province is downward, but malaria control must not be ignored, at the same time imported malaria cases should be monitored by strengthening the entry-exit inspection and quarantine.Meteorological factors not only had immediate effect, also had lag and cumulative effect. High temperature and rainfall, as well as the appropriate relative humidity can increase the risk of malaria.Higher temperature and rainfall had interaction for malaria.
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