| Objective To understand the changing trend of overweight and obesity among students aged 7-18 in ningxia from 1995 to 2014,and to predict the detection rate of overweight and obesity among students aged 7-18 in 2019 and 2024,so as to provide scientific basis for prevention and treatment of overweight and obesity among students aged 7-18 in ningxia.Methods A total of 34,408 students,including 17,819 male students(51.8%)and 16,589female students(48.2%),were selected from the ningxia han students aged 7-18 years in the national physical health research database from 1995 to 2014.According to the national physical health research manual for students,a total of 34,408 students were selected.The data of ningxia from 1995 to 2014 were analyzed,and the change trend of overweight obesity was analyzed by mann-kendall.The prediction effects of the two models,curve fitting and GM(1,1),were compared,and the optimal model was selected to predict the detection rate of overweight obesity.Results1.From 1995 to 2014,the detection rate of overweight and obesity among students aged7-18 in ningxia showed an increasing trend during the 19 years.Compared with 1995,the total detection rate of overweight and obesity in 2014 increased by 4.3 times(10.4 vs 2.4)and6.0 times(5.4 vs 0.9),with an average growth rate of 7.98%and 9.89%,respectively.According to the analysis of the epidemic trend of overweight and obesity,the mutation occurred in 2005 and exceeded the general level in this region in 2010,which showed a significant increase.The average growth rate was>in the first 9 years and>overweight in the next 10 years.2.The detection rate of overweight and obesity in 1995-2014 was significantly different between different genders.The detection rate of overweight and obesity in male students in2005 was higher than that in the previous survey year(p<0.05),while the detection rate of overweight and obesity in female students in 2000 was higher than that in the previous year,and the detection rate of overweight and obesity in 2005 was higher than that in the previous survey year(p<0.05).Compared with different genders in the same year,the detection rate of overweight and obesity was higher for boys than for girls since 2005(p<0.05).Compared with 1995,the detection rate of overweight of male and female students in 2014 increased by4.96 and 3.65 times,with an average growth rate of 8.79%and 7.05%.The detection rate of obesity increased by 8.0 and 3.89 times,with an average growth rate of 11.57%and 7.41%.The average growth rate of overweight and obesity is>for boys and>for girls,and>for the first 9 years and then 10 years.3.Except for 1995 and 2000 in urban areas and 2005 and 2010 in rural areas,the obesity detection rates in other adjacent years were statistically significant(p<0.05).In the same year,the detection rates of overweight and obesity in urban and rural areas were significantly different(p<0.05),and the detection rates in urban areas were higher than those in rural areas.The average growth rates of overweight and obesity in urban and rural areas were 6.77%,14.83%,8.50%and 17.23%,respectively.According to the analysis of the epidemic trend of overweight and obesity in urban and rural areas,the mutation occurred in 2005 and exceeded the general level of this region in 2010,showing a significant increase.The average growth rate of overweight and obesity is>in urban areas,>in rural areas,and>in the first 9 years and the second 10 years.4.Except that the differences of overweight in 2005,2010 and 1995 were not statistically significant,the remaining differences were statistically significant(p<0.05),and the peak age of overweight and obesity was 10-12 years old over time.5.From 1995 to 2014,BMI levels of students of different genders and urban and rural students aged 7-18 years old of han nationality in ningxia showed an increasing trend.Compared with 1995,in 2014,male and female students increased by 1.6kg/m~2 and 1.7kg/m~2respectively(p<0.05),and male students were higher than female students.Urban and rural areas increased by 1.5kg/m~2 and 1.9kg/m~2 respectively(p<0.05),and the growth rate was greater in rural areas than in urban areas.The low percentile of BMI did not change significantly in different years,while the high percentile did.6.Comparing the prediction effects of the two models,GM(1,1)grey model is better than curve fitting.GM(1,1)grey model predicts that the detection rate of overweight and obesity will continue to rise in 2019 and 2024,and will reach 16.03%and 9.46%respectively in 2024,among which the overweight+obesity rate of male students will reach 32%,reaching epidemic level III,and the detection rate of obesity of rural students will exceed that of urban students for the first time in 2022.Conclusion1.The detection rate of overweight and obesity among han nationality students aged7-18 years in ningxia has been on the rise in the past 19 years.The detection rate of overweight and obesity among male students is>and female students is>in urban areas.Moreover,the detection rate of overweight and obesity tends to be younger,and the detection peak appears at 10-12 years old.2.From 1995 to 2010,the obesity epidemic in ningxia han students aged 7-18 years was at the general epidemic level,and the obesity epidemic level in 2014 was at the level II.Except for the obesity of female students,the detection rates of overweight and obesity in different genders and urban and rural areas were all changed in 2005,and the general level in this region was significantly increased in 2010.3.BMI levels of different genders and urban and rural areas all showed an upward trend during the 19 years.The growth rate was>for male students and>for female students in rural areas.4.It is estimated that in 2024,the detection rate of overweight and obesity at the age of7-18 in ningxia will reach 25.8%,among which,the detection rate of overweight and obesity for male students will reach 32.8%,which has reached the obesity alert level(level III). |
