Forecast And Influence Factors Research Of Basic Medical Insurance Fund For Urban Workers On Income And Expenditure

In recent years,with the continuous improvement of China's urbanization level,the number of urban workers covered by insurance has been expanding,the income of urban residents' income for per capita also has been constantly improved.However,with the accelerating process of the elderly aged 65 and above,the expenditure level of medical insurance fund for urban workers in China is also increasing,so that the imbalance of medical insurance fund income and expenditure is also prominent.Therefore,it is more and more important to predict and analyze the influencing factors on the income and expenditure of the medical insurance fund for urban employees in China for the next few years,and to put forward targeted opinions on the related work of the medical insurance fund in China in the future based on the results is also significant.Research Purpose:Mainly to find the factors which influence the income and expenditure of medical insurance for urban workers from personnel structure of insurance,the level of insurance's income,social level of overall development,consciousness of social moral hazard based on the development of our country town worker medical insurance fund.And build step by step regression model,based on the data over the years in our country.Research Methods:Using GM(1,1)model to predict the significant factors which affect our country town worker medical insurance fund's income and expenditure.And then to calculate the result of the income and expenditure up to 2025.According to the relevant files to puts forward suggestions on three aspects.Research Results: Based on the analysis,there are three results to show: 1)The average salary level of urban employees,the number of insured persons of urban medical insurance fund and the rate of urban workers are positively correlated with the income of medical insurance fund.2)There was a significant positive correlation between the proportion of population over 65 years old,the expenditure of medical insurance fund and GDP for urban workers.3)The overall health insurance fund is facing the biggest risk up to 2025.Although the income of the fund has the trend of extending in the later years,it still shows the difficult between income to outcome from 2019 to 2025.Research Conclusion: Our country should be in line with the goal of "promote income,optimize defray,strengthen supervise" to promote the balance of medical insurance for urban workers.