Study On The Influencing Factors For Spatialtemporal Distribution Of Hemorrhagic Fever With Renal Syndrome And Vaccine Demanding,Chenzhou City,Hunan Province

Hemorrhagic Fever with Renal Syndrome(HFRS)is a natural epidemic disease caused by Hantavirus infection.Patients usually have symptoms such as high fever,headache,multiple bleeding in the body and acute renal failure.Hantavirus is usually carried by rodents in the wild,but this virus does not cause disease in rats.In countries with high incidence of HFRS in China,more than 90% of HFRS reported cases of the globe come from China,which is a major threat to public health in China and closely related to human health.Hunan Province is China's high-risk province of HFRS.Both environmental changes and host population dynamics affect the spread and prevalence of HFRS.This study first analyzed the temporal and spatial distribution dynamics of HFRS in Chenzhou City using the most basically descriptive analysis methods in epidemiology.Then,combining the geographic information technology and niche theory and method,the model was used to study the environment,rodent species and population dynamics of host animals.According to the model,the risk of HFRS infection on different land types was predicted.Finally,combined with time-series analyzing method,the demand for HFRS vaccine in Chenzhou City from 2017 to 2050 was studied.The main findings are as follows:First,the spatial and temporal distribution characteristics of the HFRS epidemic in Chenzhou City.In terms of time,the incidences of HFRS in winters were high,and there were bimodal trends for many years.Irregular fluctuations occurred between years and years.In terms of space,the HFRS preferred to occur in the west than east.And HFRS cases distributed in whole Guiyang and Jiahe counties.The northern part of Yizhang County,the western parts of Anren and Yongxing Counties and the eastern part of Linwu County were concentrated with HFRS cases,while Zixing,Guidong,Yucheng and other counties had only scattered HFRS cases.As for as population characteristics,HFRS cases were concentrated in the age of 16-60 years old,young and middle-aged persons.The risk of infecting HV among males was higher than that among females,and farmers are at the most risk for HFRS.Second,the relationship between the risk of HFRS and the environmental and host animal community dynamics.Based on the niche theory,the model was built to fit the environmental data,rodent monitoring data and HFRS case data to explore the intrinsic relationship between the three.The occurrence of HFRS in cultivated land was positively correlated with various rodents.The occurrence of HFRS in forest was mainly positively correlated with other rodents(R.losea and Microtus fortis calamorum).The occurrence of HFRS on grassland was mainly caused by Rattus norvegicus.The HFRS occurrence in water bodies were closely related to other mouse species(R.losea and Microtus fortis calamorum).There was a significant positive correlation between relative humidity and TVDI and R.norvegicus.There was a significant positive correlation between temperature and relative humidity Mus musculus.There was a significant positive correlation between precipitation and NDVI and Rattus flavipectus.NDVI and TVDI showed a significant positive correlation with other rodents(R.losea and Microtus fortis calamorum).Cultivated land was the type of land with the highest risk of infection with Hantavirus.Third,the demand for HFRS vaccine in 2017-2050 in Chenzhou City is predicted.Using time series analysis to predict the target population of HFRS vaccine,combined with the WHO recommendation formula and other necessary data obtained from literature or other materials to predict the demand for future HFRS vaccine.The results showed a trend of continuous decline since 2017.This study combined the theoretical and practical knowledge of geographic information,ecology,epidemiology,remote sensing and other disciplines to describe the characteristics of HFRS epidemic in Chenzhou City,to analyze the influencing factors of HFRS epidemic,and to predict the future demand for HFRS vaccine.It can not only provide a reference for similar research,but can also provide theoretical and even practical basis for guiding HFRS prevention and control work in Chenzhou City.