Validation Study Of Prediction Models Of Hepatitis B Virus-related Hepatocellular Carcinoma And Prediction Models Of Hepatitis B Virus-related Hepatocellular Carcinoma

Objective:To validate a previously published model(D~2AS score)for predicting the risk of developing hepatitis B virus(HBV)-related hepatoc-ellular carcinoma(HCC),without meeting the criteria of antiviral therapy.Methods:The hepatitis B surface antigen(HBsAg)positive(?6 months)patients who were admitted in the infectious clinic between Jan 2015 and July2017 were selected as the subjects.Relevant clinical data of all the subjects were retrospectively collected and assessed using the scoring systems.Receiver operating characteristic curves(ROC)and Hosmer-Lemeshow good of fit test were used to evaluate the predictive values of the model,discrim-ination and calibration,respectively.Results:For the chronic HBV infection cohort with HBV DNA?2000IU/mL and ALT?2ULN,the AUROC of D~2AS score was lower than the REACH-B score(0.784 and 0.916),but further subgroup analysis for HBeAg-negative chronic infection,the AUROC of D~2AS score was higher than REACH-B,0.952 vs 0.913,and the H-L goodness of fit test was 0.957.Conclusion:The D~2AS score can be used for HCC prediction among patients who do not meet antiviral criteria.For HBeAg-negative chronic HBV infection cohort,D~2AS score may be a more sensitive prediction model than REACH-B score.