Spatial Pattern And Risk Factors Of Esophageal Cancer Mortality In Huai River Basin

Huai River Basin,located at the dividing line between China’s north and south,with area of approximately 270,000 km~2.Since 1980s,Huai River Basin has been polluted by industrial emissions and human activities,the health residents has been threatened.There are few previous studies on the risk of esophageal cancer in the Huai River Basin for the natural environment of study area is complex and human activities are frequent,the analysis of environmental health risks for the whole region is still at the exploration stage.Based on the previous studies of environmental and social factors and spatial analysis of diseases,this study discussed the spatial distribution of esophageal cancer in 12 monitoring counties in Huai River Basin,as well as the water environmental pollution factors,soil background values and social economy factors.Through the analysis of the relationship between environmental factors and social conditions,a risk assessment model was established,the main research methods,results and conclusions are as follows:1.The spatial dependent,spatial heterogeneity and cluster characteristics of esophageal cancer mortality in the Huai River Basin were analyzed in this study.Spatial positive correlation in the mortality of esophageal cancer is Moran’s I=0.26,strong spatial stratification heterogeneity was found(q=0.90).After further detection through cold-hot spots analysis,it was found that the mortality was concentrated at Jinhu,Xuyi and Wenshang counties which around the lake.2.Using the surface water quality grade data in the study area from 1987 to 2004and GeoDetector q statistics to explore the relationship between water pollution and esophageal cancer mortality in different lag periods.The results indicated that the current esophageal cancer mortality rate is mainly affected from the water pollution past8 years.Study further analyze of the relationships between soil background value elements and socioeconomic status and cancer and found that the interaction between Cr,Hg,Cu,Pb,Se has a significant relationship with esophageal cancer mortality;In the social-economic status,the average years of education for the whole population,the average years of education for women,and the proportion of the population of the tertiary industry are significant.3.According to the risk factors selected by the GeoDetector,GAM model was used to analyze the multi-factors nonlinearity effect on esophageal cancer mortality.The adjustmentR~2 of the model is 0.92,the variance explanatory power was 93.10%.This paper summarizes the spatial distribution characteristics of esophageal cancer mortality in the Huai River Basin,and selected environmental and social-economic risk factors to analyze the environmental and social risks of esophageal cancer mortality in the region,and their impact on the environment and health of the region.The results of this study provides a scientific basis for cancer prevention and control in Huai River Basin.