| Objectives:This study was based on the Jinchang cohort follow-up population.The aims of our study was to understand the mortality and risk factors of three cardiovascular diseases in this population,including hypertension,coronary heart disease,and arrhythmia;and the corresponding risk factors of these diseases were used to establish a prediction model for those who were without three cardiovascular diseases in follow-up population.The findings of this study could provided some evidence of provention for cardiovascular disease in Jinchang corhort.Methods:The research subjects were the follow-up population of Jinchang cohort and the incidence of three diseases were obtained by using Descriptive epidemic method.Weibull accelerated failure time model(AFT)was applied to analyze the influencing factors of three diseases,then obtained the estimates of covariates through model fitting.The established AFT model was used to predict the probability of three cardiovascular diseases.In order to make the interpretation of each parameter better,the Weibull accelerated failure time model parameters were converted to Weibull proportional hazards regression model parameters and the corresponding risk ratio(HR)was calculated to assess the effect of the influencing factors on cardiovascular disease.Results:1.The incidence of hypertension in the Jinchang cohort was 13.68%,15.73%in men and10.85%in women.The incidence rate in men was higher than that in women(?~2=121.265,P<0.01).The incidence of coronary heart disease(CHD)was 2.27%,and that of men was 2.34%.The incidence between male and female had no significant difference(?~2=1.210,P>0.05);the incidence of arrhythmia was 14.68%,male was 16.01%,female was 12.89%,and the incidence of male was higher than female(?~2=37.111,P<0.01).The incidence of hypertension and coronary heart disease has a tendency to increase with age,however the incidence of arrhythmia decreases with age and then rises.2.The results of model fitting showed that after adjustment for other variables,men had a39.1%higher risk of hypertension than women(HR=1.391,P<0.01);In each profession to level cadres reference only back office service personnel increased risk of 75.1%;Among the education level,junior high school(HR=0.739,P<0.01)and senior high school(HR=0.712,P<0.01)had a26.1%,28.8%lower risk than undergraduate and above;ex-smoker and current smoker were23.95%and 27.01%higher risk than non-smokers respectively.Among alcohol drinking,only drinking(HR=1.3555,P<0.01)was 35.55%higher than non-drinkers.family history could increase the risk of hypertension by 34.71%(HR=1.3471,P<0.01).Among the other continuous variables,Age,BMI,FBG,TC,LDL-C,and UA increased the risk of hypertension per unit by0.43%,7.18%,4.50%,36.66%,43.76%,and 0.1%and The risk of hypertension was reduced by20.66%per unit of increase in HDL-C.3.The analysis of risk factors for coronary heart disease showed that after adjusting for other variables,men had a 35.77%lower risk of coronary heart disease than women(HR=0.6423,P<0.01).In the occupational classification,compared with cadres,only service personnel's risk of CHD increased 46.57%(HR=1.4657,P<0.01);Current smokers had a higher risk of coronary heart disease than non-smokers by 40.41%(HR=1.4041,P<0.01),and ex-somkers was not statistically significant.there was a family history of coronary heart disease.The risk increased by39.68%(HR=1.3968,P<0.01).In the rest of continuous variables,the risk of coronary heart disease increased by 6.62%and 5.55%,0.55%,44.73%,5.88%,47.30%,respectively,for each additional unit of age,BMI,SBP,TC,TG,and LDL-C.when HDL-C increased one unit,the risk of CHD decreased by 38.51%.4.Analysis of factors affecting the incidence of arrhythmia showed that after adjustment for other variables,men had a 75.96%higher risk of arrhythmia than women(HR=1.7596,P<0.01).In the occupational classification,compared with cadres,the risk of arrhythmia in service population increased by 30.15%(HR=1.3015,P<0.01),whereas the risk of the workers'group decreased by 24.90%(HR=0.7510,P<0.01).Among the education level,only junior high school(HR=0.5986,P<0.01).)and high school education(HR=0.7201,P<0.01)had the lower risk of arrhythmia with 40.14%,27.99%than undergraduate or above;alcohol consumption could increase the risk of arrhythmia by 18.95%.Among the other continuous variables,the risk of arrhythmia decreased by 3.68%and 5.22%for each additional unit of age and TG.Each increased unit of DBP,TC,LDL-C,and UA made risk of arrhythmia increased by 0.51%,27.37%,39.49%,and 0.11%respectively.5.Two-year risk prediction of three cardiovascular diseases showed that the lowest risk of hypertension and CHD in both male and female populations was in the 25-year-old age group,while the highest risk of hypertension was in the 65-year-old age group,CHD was in 75-year-old age group.Overall,the risk of both increases with age.In contrast,the risk prediction of two years for arrhythmia was highest in the 25-year age group in both male and female,and the lowest is the age group of more than 75 years,and it tended to decrease with age.Conclusions:1.The incidence rate of hypertension,coronary heart disease,and arrhythmia in the Jinchang cohort was higher than other researches.With respect to hypertension and coronary heart disease,the populations older than 45 years showed the higher incidence rate,however arrhythmia showed the higher rate in both young and elderly people.2.The demographic features such as gender,age,occupation,and family history were the common factors affecting three cardiovascular diseases and the influence of dyslipidemia on the incidence of three cardiovascular diseases was more significant.BMI,FBG and UA were related to the onset of hypertension.SBP was more influenced on the incidence of coronary heart disease,and DBP had more significant effect on the incidence of arrhythmia.3.With respect to hypertension and coronary heart disease,the results of prediction of weibull accelerated failure time model is basically consistent with the incidence of these cardiovascular diseases;while the predictive result of arrhythmia is not good enough. |
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