Research On The Influence Of Population Development Trend And Policy Change On The Level Of Medical Insurance And Fund Balance

[Purpose]Starting from the trend of population development of national medical insurance system and policy change analysis in China's national medical insurance system development based on the history,the influence degree of population quantity and structure of medical insurance,the basic framework of the system,summarizes and comments on the characteristics and development of the universal health care system reform trend,using statistical methods to measure the population variable correlation to the level of medical security and fund,so as to construct the correlation model of China's medical security level and population development.[Methods](1)Through the collection at home and abroad on the impact of demographic change on medical insurance theories and data,summed up the population specific factors on medical insurance system,research on the theory and method of its use,discusses its advantages and disadvantages,and provide theoretical support and technical support for this study;(2)Using factor analysis in order to quantify the dynamic analysis of the process as the main line,correlation analysis between population variables and medical security level;(3)the use of panel data regression analysis to quantify the dynamic analysis of the process as the main line,to measure the demographic variables correlation to the medical insurance fund,the medical insurance fund as the independent analysis of linear relationship between them;(4)through the organization experts,study involves the construction of a reasonable research index.The index system,the selection of statistical methods in line with the study,evaluation of the feasibility of research methods,and the guidance of the results of the study is expected to demonstrate.[Results]1.Overview of population and medical insurance development in China and Hubei:According to the change of the national population policy,the 1949-2014 is divided into 7 stages,from the population,growth rate,birth rate,mortality rate,population age structure,sex structure,the aging of the population,life expectancy,urbanization,population quality and dynamic panel data analysis showed that the population change and population policy closely related.1959-1961,1991-2014 implementation of family planning stage,the population growth rate is less than 1%,while the other stages are more than 1%.Analysis of 2003-2015 years of employee health insurance data that:the insured rate increased year by year,while the increase in the cost of medical insurance fund is greater than the majority of the fund's income growth in the past year,the health insurance fund is facing the risk of wear.2.Empirical Study on the relationship between population and health care:According to the results of factor analysis,this study will influence the level of insurance coverage of medical and demographic factors and medical insurance own cut a total of 15 indexes to five factors:factor H1 fund level,the contribution rate was 26%;H2 medical insurance coverage level factors,the contribution rate was 24%;H3 population policy factors,the contribution rate was 13.3%H4;population structure factors,the contribution rate was 13%;H4 population quality factors,the contribution rate was 10.6%.The cumulative contribution rate of the five principal component factors was 87%,which indicated that these five factors could explain the effect of the influence factors of the medical insurance level of 87%.3.Empirical study on the relationship between demographic factors and medical insurance fund expenditure:The 0.8487 is to adjust the R~2 value of the panel data regression,regression model with panel data shows that the fitting degree is high,the model contains information about the variables can explain the medical insurance fund expenditure Co ordinating the various amount of information quantity is 84.87%.The rate of insurance,retirement job ratio,mortality,rate of urbanization,population aging,gender structure,education level and the level of medical technology,the ten variables of the corresponding P value was 0,indicating a panel data regression model selected independent variables of expenditure on medical insurance fund is a significant influence.The regression coefficients of the independent variables of the aging population is 0.82,it is all the regression coefficients of the absolute value of the maximum,indicating the aging of medical insurance fund influence,followed by urbanization,population structure,population mortality,sex education,in-service retirement ratio,medical technology level,insurance rate,birth rate,growth the rate of.[Conclusions]The development of population and policy changes affect the development of medical insurance.The birth rate,mortality rate,growth rate,sex ratio,urbanization,education level,maternal mortality(Medical Technology)etc.not only influence the level of medical care,but also affects the balance of medical insurance fund.After the research found that the factors we consider the influence of did not exist alone,interactions between various influence factors of medical insurance and fund balance,economic development to promote the progress of medical technology,is the cause of population aging,and the effect of aging treatment and changes of disease chronic disease spectrum is the actual existence,population development as influencing factors of medical insurance and fund balance long main influence,it to the medical insurance fund financing and health insurance fund compensation have different degrees of impact.The asymmetry of medical induced demand,moral hazard and information asymmetry can seriously affect the efficiency of medical insurance fund management.