| Objective:To study the epidemiological characteristics of patients with malignant tumor in Changchun city and make predictions,to provide scientific basis for the prevention and control measures and countermeasures of effective malignant tumor in the department of health.Method:Data of the death of malignant tumor in Changchun city from 2007 to 2016 were collected,and the rate of data acquisition and composition ratio was expressed.Analysis of development trend and dynamic changes of malignant tumor mortality,calculation of primary malignant tumor mortality,gender,age,don't mortality,deaths from malignant tumors of profession,nationality,marital,PYLL,AYLL and sequence of the malignant tumor death index,analysis of Changchun city the deaths of malignant tumor,malignant tumor death caused loss of life,and to establish a GM(1,1)grey forecasting model to forecast the malignant tumor mortality of Changchun city.Results:1.From 2007 to 2016,the number of death cases of malignant tumors in Changchun city was 58613,among whom 35541 were males,23072 females were females,and males were higher than females.The age range of death from malignant tumor was 0~110 years old.2.As can be seen from the trend chart,the mortality of malignant tumors showed a downward trend from 2007 to 2009,and the trend was increasing year by year from 2009 to 2016.The overall mortality rate of malignant tumors of differentgenders was increasig,and the mortality of male malignant tumors was higher than that of female.In the analysis of the dynamic changes in the death of malignant tumor from2007 to 2016,the mortality rate decreased in 2009,and then showed an increasing trend year by year.In 2012,the annual absolute growth rate and the chain of the development rate and the growth rate of cancer mortality reached the highest and followed a year-on-year downward trend.3.Changchun city residents major malignant tumor mortality rates were highest lung cancer(21.89/10),followed by liver cancer(11.19/10),the stomach(6.65/10)colorectal cancer(4.63/10),pancreatic cancer(2.84/10),breast cancer(2.20/10),leukemia(1.89/10),esophageal(1.65/10),brain and central nervous system tumors(1.42/10),and bladder cancer(0.82/10),cervical cancer(0.72/10).Male lung cancer,liver cancer,stomach cancer,colorectal cancer,pancreatic cancer,leukemia,esophageal cancer and other mortality rates were higher than those of women,while women had a higher mortality rate than men.4.Analysis constituent ratios of major malignant tumor death among all age groups,most of the malignant tumor increases with age.From 2007 to 2016,the mortality rate of patients aged between 0 ~17 was2.47/100,000,among which the highest mortality rate was leukemia(1.30/100,000).The mortality rate of patients aged 18~34 was 4.47/ 100,000,among which the highest rate of malignancy was leukemia(0.98/100,000).The mortality rate of patients aged 35~60 was 62.09/ 100,000,among which the highest mortality was lung cancer(14.07/100,000),followed by liver cancer(11.80/100,000).Mortality in patients with aged 61 ~ death was 322.20/10,one of the highest mortality of malignant tumor of lung cancer(102.01/10),followed by liver cancer(39.34/10),stomach cancer(29.34/10),colorectal cancer(21.54/10),and pancreatic cancer(12.63/10),etc.5.In 2007-2016,Changchun residents major malignant tumor death cases,farming,forestry,animal husbandry,fishery and water conservation production personnel accounted for 35.1%,production,transportation,equipment operation andthe relevant personnel accounted for 12.7%,state organs,organizations,enterprises and institutions between head accounted for 7.8%,professional and technical personnel accounted for 3.8%,commercial,service personnel accounted for 1.8%,military accounted for 0.1%,other professionals accounted for 15.2%,unemployed,unemployed and retired workers accounted for 23.4%.The highest proportion of major malignant tumors in different occupational groups was lung cancer,followed by liver cancer.Among those involved in agriculture,forestry,animal husbandry,fishery,water industry and military personnel,the proportion of gastric cancer was also higher,at 10.24% and 12.50% respectively.Among the heads of state organs,party organizations and enterprises and institutions,the proportion of stomach cancer and liver cancer were also high.6.From 2007 to 2016,the highest proportion of major malignant tumors in different ethnic groups was lung cancer,followed by liver cancer.Among the Han population,the proportion of pancreatic cancer(12.96%)was also higher.7.In the ten years,the majority of the major malignant tumor deaths in Changchun city,the married population accounted for 83.2%,the widowed population accounted for 11.5%,the divorced and unmarried people accounted for 1.9%,and the unknown accounted for 1.4%.The highest proportion of the major malignant tumors of married,widowed and divorced people were lung cancer,accounting for 28.06%,32.63% and 21.45%,followed by liver cancer: 14.91%,11.52% and 13.15%respectively.The highest number of unmarried patients was leukaemia(18.38%).8.From 2007 to 2016,the life loss caused by the death of malignant tumor in Changchun city was 124,679 person-years and 11.05 years respectively.Among them,lung cancer was the most likely to decrease the number of years of life(28,016person-years),followed by liver cancer(21,477 person-years),and PYLL(483person-years)of bladder cancer was the lowest.The average age of leukaemia was the highest(25.89 years).9.From 2007 to 2016,the top three causes of death of all residents in Changchun city were: lung cancer,liver cancer,stomach cancer,and the followed were colorectal cancer and pancreatic cancer.Leukemia,breast cancer,esophageal cancer and brain and nervous system tumors in the sequence of each year in the sixthand eighth and ninth respectively between changes,including breast cancer in the sequence are sixth in 2012-2016.From 2007 to 2016,the cause of death of female residents in Changchun city was the first in lung cancer,and the second was liver cancer.Colorectal cancer,gastric cancer,and breast cancer were all changed in the third,fourth and fifth places each year.Other types of malignancies have also changed during the decade.From 2007 to 2016,the top four causes of death of male residents in Changchun were lung cancer,liver cancer,stomach cancer and colorectal cancer.Pancreatic cancer came in fifth place in 2007-2014 and 2016,and 6th in 2015.Other types of malignancies have changed in sequence over the decade.10.By using GM(1,1)grey model to predict the mortality of malignant tumor in2017,the absolute correlation degree of grey is 0.996,the correlation degree is high level,after the model test,the posterior difference ratio C=0.147<0.35,the probability of small error is P=1.00,so the prediction accuracy of GM(1,1)model is superior,which can be used for extrapolation prediction.Therefore,the mortality rate of residents of Changchun in 2017 is expected to be 143.10/100,000.Conclusion:1.From 2007 to 2016,the mortality of malignant tumors in Changchun city was on the rise,and the mortality of male malignant tumor was higher than that of female.2.In the analysis of the mortality of major malignancies,in addition to the mortality of female breast cancer,the mortality rate of other malignant tumors in males was higher than that of females.3.Middle-aged and elderly people are at high risk of malignant tumor death,while children and adolescents have high levels of leukemia mortality.4.The proportion of malignant tumor death was different among different occupational groups.Lung cancer accounted for the highest proportion of all ethnic groups and marriage,followed by liver cancer.5.According to the analysis of the life loss caused by the death of malignant tumor in Changchun city and the average age of life reduction,lung cancer has the highest potential number of years of life reduction,and the average number of yearsof leukemia is the highest.6.In 10 years,the top five causes of death of malignant tumors in Changchun city were: lung cancer,liver cancer,stomach cancer,colorectal cancer and pancreatic cancer,which are the key points of cancer prevention in Changchun.The leading causes of cancer in men and women were both lung cancer and liver cancer.7.By predicting the mortality of malignant tumors in Changchun,it is found that the mortality rate of malignant tumors in 2017 is expected to be higher than that of previous years... |
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