| Background: Over the past century,as the global climate changes,the Earth's average temperature has risen by about 0.75°C.In the past 25 years,global temperatures have risen by 0.18°C per 10 years.If greenhouse gas emissions cannot be effectively controlled,the global climate change may be more rapid.It is precisely because of the significant changes in the global climate brought about by the deterioration of the environment that more and more research has begun to focus on the impact of climate change on health.Objectives:(1)To explore the influence of mean temperature on the incidence of ischemic stroke;(2)To further discuss the influence of comprehensive indexhumidex on the incidence of ischemic stroke,and whether there is lag effect;(3)Explore and compare In different ages and gender groups,whether the humidex impact on the disease is different,so as to further clarify the corresponding meteorological vulnerable population and provide scientific basis for formulating an effective ischemic stroke prevention strategy.Methods: Data on ischemic stroke from 2009 to 2015 in Anhui Provincial Hospital and Hefei Second People's Hospital were collected.The data were mainly from the records of patients with ischemic stroke during the study.The information included:age,sex,admission date,quality days and total treatment costs.At the same time,the daily average meteorological data of Hefei area during the study period were collected,eg,the daily mean value data during the study period(from 2009 to 2015),including daily maximum temperature,daily mean temperature,daily minimum temperature,relative humidity,wind speed,rainfall,sunshine hour.With reference to Canada's temperature and humidity index calculation method,the daily humidex is calculated.Then,the time series of ischemic stroke and various meteorological indicators were established.The effects of mean temperature and temperature and humidity index changes on ischemic stroke were analyzed using the "dlnm" software package in the R software.Results: A total of 24,132 cases of ischemic stroke patients were collected in this study.Among them,13,327 were males,10,805 were females,and the ratio of male to female was 1.23:1.Among the patients,5024 were ? 60 years old and 18,928 were >60 years old.The elderly patients are obviously in the majority.The analysis of the number of annual incidence in each group found that during the study period,the total number of ischemic stroke patients and the number of patients in each subgroup showed a significant increase.Through time series analysis,it was found that the average temperature and humidex were related to the onset of ischemic stroke.The whole population analysis found that the low humidex and the low average temperature showed a risk of ischemic stroke.And when the 5th and 10 th percentiles of the humidex were compared with the reference,the low humidex had an effect on the third day of lag(P5: RR=1.032(95%CI: 1.005,1.061);P10: RR=1.032(95%CI:1.006,1.059)),and the effect lasts for about 8 days.From the results of the subgroup analysis,men were insensitive to changes in the low humidex,and no significant effect was found in the exploration of different percentiles;women were more sensitive to changes in the low humidor than men.The hazard effect of the female group was on the third day of lag.When the 5th percentile was compared with the reference,the relative risk of female ischemic stroke was 1.049(95%CI: 1.007,1.093);When the percentiles were compared with the reference,RR=1.048(95%CI:1.008,1.090),and the effects lasted for about 9 days;from the age group comparison,the ?60-year-old group was hardly affected by changes in the low humidex.The impact was greater in the >60-year-old group,and the harm of the low-temperature-humidity index to the elderly was generally present on the third day of lag.The single-day lag effects were(P5: RR=1.040(95%CI: 1.008,1.072);P10:RR=1.039(95%CI: 1.009,1.070)),the effect continues until the lag of the 10 th day.Conclusion: The study confirms that low ambient temperature can affect the onset of ischemic stroke with hysteresis.At the same time,the subgroup analysis found that women and the elderly may be more susceptible to the effects of low ambient temperature,and need to pay more attention to the formulation of future prevention policies. |
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