Research On Forecast Of Labor Supply And Demand In Hebei Province From 2020 To 2050

At the beginning of this century,the population of Hebei Province has entered the aging stage,and the degree of aging continues to improve,and the quantity and structure of labor supply also changes accordingly.Since the 18 th National Congress of the Communist Party of China,China’s two child birth policy has undergone two adjustments,and the population and labor resources of Hebei Province have or will have a certain response in quantity and structure.In recent years,with the implementation of the coordinated development strategy of Beijing,Tianjin and Hebei,the promotion of the construction of Xiongan new area and the preparation of the Beijing Zhangjiakou Winter Olympic Games,Hebei Province’s position in the national economic and social development has been improved,and the transformation and upgrading of economic growth mode and industrial structure of Hebei Province have entered the fast lane.Based on the above background,based on the analysis of the history and current situation of labor supply and demand in Hebei Province,this paper forecasts and analyzes the changes of labor force in Hebei Province from two aspects of supply and demand.First,in the labor supply model,using the age shift algorithm,combined with the life table of the model,the number of population by age and gender in Hebei Province is calculated in three schemes from 2020 to 2050,and then the number of labor age population is obtained;then,combined with the hypothesis of three schemes of labor participation rate in Hebei Province,the number of labor supply in the next 30 years in Hebei Province is finally calculated.Secondly,in the labor demand model,based on the Cobb Douglas production function,combined with the change trend of Hebei Province’s GDP and capital stock in the next30 years,the labor demand of different industries in Hebei Province in the next 30 years is calculated in reverse;among them,the historical capital stock on which the capital stock is based is calculated by the perpetual inventory method.In this paper,the population prediction results show that: in the next 30 years,the total population scale of Hebei Province shows the trend of first rising and then falling,and the peak population will appear around 2043,with the peak population scale of81.495 million;the comprehensive two-child policy delays the occurrence of the peak population of Hebei Province for five years;the population aging degree of Hebei province continues to improve,and by 2050,the population aging degree It is close to the level of Japan,the country with the highest degree of aging in the world;the population size of labor age is declining year by year and the decline speed is accelerating after 2035;the future labor supply quantity of Hebei Province shows a trend of first rising and then declining,with the lowest labor supply quantity of 31 million people and the highest of 41 million people.The forecast results of labor demand of Hebei Province with medium economic growth rate and medium TFP growth rate are as follows: the labor demand of the first industry will decrease year by year,the labor demand of the second industry will increase first and then decrease,the labor demand of the third industry will increase first and then decrease.In the absence of major technological changes,the pattern of labor supply exceeding demand in Hebei Province will be reversed in 2021.In order to achieve high-quality economic and social development in Hebei Province under the changing trend of labor supply and demand,we should continue to increase investment in education and research and development,strengthen labor skills training,and pay attention to the development of human resources for the elderly.