Research On Financial Risk Early Warning Of Muyuan Foods Company Based On Fuzzy Comprehensive Evaluation Method

With the development of society,the production level of China’s pig breeding industry has been greatly improved.Meanwhile,industry intensification,specialization level also rises somewhat.However,due to the long breeding cycle of pigs,they are greatly affected by the natural environment and disease conditions,and the price has periodic fluctuations.The prospect of the industry is closely related to the economic environment and people’s living standard,which makes the pig breeding industry face financial risks such as high production cost,large expansion cost and unpredictable price fluctuation while developing rapidly.Statistics show that in China,47% of enterprises fail due to cash flow rupture.The reason is not the poor profitability of enterprises,but the lack of attention to risk prevention and control,leading to the development of financial risks into financial crisis until bankruptcy.Therefore,the identification and prevention of financial risks has become the top priority to maintain the long-term development of enterprises.Taking Muyuan Foods comany as the research object,this paper first reviews the theoretical research,expounds the related concepts of financial risk early warning and introduces the method of constructing the financial risk early warning model of Muyuan.This paper analyzes the debt repayment risk,operation risk,profit risk,investment risk and development risk of Muyuan,points out its financial risk status,determines the index of Muyuan financial early warning system,uses analytic hierarchy process to determine the index weight,and uses fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method to construct the Muyuan financial risk early warning model.The model evaluation standard value is determined according to the financial data of other large-scale enterprises in the industry.After that,the financial data of Muyuan from 2016 to 2018 were used for risk assessment,and the accuracy of the model was verified by comparison with its actual situation.The model is used to analyze the risk early warning in 2019,and the evaluation results are obtained.Based on the evaluation results,this paper puts forward suggestions on the prevention and improvement of the financial risk of Muyuan.The early-warning model constructed in this paper,combined with the actual operation status of the original stock and collected real data in the industry,can provide reference models and methods for pig breeding enterprises to carry out financial risk prevention.