| Tea is one of the most important economic crops widely cultivated in China and has a huge output value.It is extremely important to figure out the relationship between the occurrence of tea diseases and pests and meteorological conditions to prevent tea diseases and pests and ensure high yield of tea.Ectropis grisescens Wareen is one of the major pests that has seriously harmed most tea regions in China in recent years.It is mainly caused by larva feeding on tea leaves.When it occurs,it can make the tea garden a large area of bald branches,like being burned,and even no yield,seriously affecting the quality and yield of tea in China.Because they have many generations,rapid reproduction,rapid spread,and are prone to disasters,it is particularly important to predict the occurrence of this pest.Based on the existing meteorological and future meteorological data,biological data of E.grisescens and known distribution data,combined with CLIMEX 2.0 model and ArcGIS 10.4.1,the current and future potential distribution areas of E.grisescens in China are predicted.The main results are as follows:The climatic conditions in most areas of China are suitable for the growth of E.grisescens.The highly suitable areas mainly include Guangxi,Guizhou,Guangdong,Jiangxi,Fujian,Jiangsu,Chongqing,Hubei,most parts of Hainan,and central Hunan,southern Shandong,northern Anhui,northeastern Zhejiang,southern Henan,southwestern Shaanxi,southeastern Gansu,eastern Sichuan,southern Tibet,southeastern Yunnan,and western Southern Taiwan.Moderately suitable areas mainly include Zhejiang,most parts of Hunan,southern Anhui,northeastern Guangxi,northern Taiwan,central Yunnan,southern Hubei,and small parts of Shandong,Henan,Shaanxi,Gansu,Sichuan,Tibet,and Guizhou.The low suitable areas are banded through southern Liaoning,Shandong,northern Henan,southwestern Shanxi,northwestern Shanxi,southern Gansu,central Sichuan,northern Yunnan,and southern Tibet.The climatic conditions of China are very suitable for the establishment of the population of E.grisescens.Due to climate change,the suitable area for E.grisescens in China has expanded.The overall area will be increasing slowly until 2070,from 34.75% to 35.17%,but its structure has changed greatly.The low suitable areas have little expansion to the inland areas.Only the areas in the southern part of the Tibetan province,the central part of the Shaanxi-Gansu-Ningxia region,and the Liaodong Peninsula gradually turn to low suitable areas.Meanwhile,the degree of suitability in most areas of the Yunnan Province,originally belonged to the moderately and high suitable,has gradually decreased.From 2050 to 2070,the degree of suitability in some areas of Guangdong and Guangxi regions will also begin to decline,which results in further increase of low suitable areas.The moderately suitable area is declining due to the shrinking of the moderately and highly suitable areas of Yunnan Province and the increase of the degree of fitness in Guizhou Province and Zhejiang Province.However,due to the decline of the areas of Guangdong and Guangxi regions,which originally belonged to highly suitable area,in 2070,the proportion of moderately area increases again.By the end of 2050,the proportion of the highly suitable area in the country will reach the peak,accounting for 22.74%.Almost all areas of Guizhou,Jiangxi,Hunan,Hubei,Guangxi,Guangdong,Fujian,Zhejiang,Jiangsu,Anhui,and Chongqing have become highly suitable areas for E.grisescens.Compared with A1 B,the A2 scenario will accelerate E.grisescens expand inland.For the first time,this study use the CLIMEX model and ArcGIS software to predict the potential habitats of the pest in China,and to obtain the spatio-temporal map of the suitable areas of E.grisescens in China under global warming.Based on the results of the analysis of the fitness of the pest in China,we suggest to strengthen the prevention and control measures of E.grisescens,and the monitoring system should be improved to prevent further economic losses. |
