Potential Climate- And Host Plant-suitable Distribution And Spread Trend Of Oracella Acuta In China

With the rapid development of economic globalization, impacts of invasive alien insects on agriculture and forestry, ecological environment, socio-economy and human health are getting increasingly serious and concerned. Over the last decade, the pest risk analysis of invasive alien insects has become an important and fast-progressing research area in the invasive biology. The current and future potential geographic distribution of O.acuta were predicted using CLIMEX and ArcGIS, as well as the available biological data, documented distribution of O.acuta, meteorological data from 820 weather sites in China and future meteorological data from CLIMond website. The HYSPLIT model was employed to simulate the dispersion trajectories of O.acuta. The main results were as follows:The potential geographic distribution area ranged between 3.85°N and 39.9°N, which accounts for 38.7% of the country’s total area. The areas with Pinus plants are all favorable for the distribution of O.acuta. The highly suitable areas involve Taiwan, Hainan, Guizhou, Chongqing, Jiangsu, Shanghai, most parts of Guangdong, Guangxi, Yunnan, Shaanxi, Henan, Anhui, Hubei, Henan, south of Fujian, Shandong, north of Hunan, east of Zhejiang, and Sichuan.Future distributional models indicated a shift of the suitable distribution ranges toward northern latitudes for O.acuta. With the climate change scenario A1B, the potential distribution range of O.acuta extends considerably farther to the north by some 112.10 km (1.02°N) by 2030,153.59 km (1.40°N) by 2050 and 189.00 km (1.72°N) by 2070. Compared to the AlB scenario, O.acuta moving to northward areas is faster under A2 scenario. The changes are approximately 150.00 km (1.35°N), 197.27 km (1.79°N) and 243.06 km (2.21°N) by the three periods. Meanwhile the distribution models predicted to future shown an increase in the favorable climate ranges of O.acuta in China, which is predicted to increase from 34.19% to 37.62% by 2070. areas that are currently at moderate risk will turn to be at high risk in the future are identified in this study, such as northeast of Fujian, center and south of Taiwan, southeast of Zhejiang and northeast of Yunnan. Similarly, some areas turned from low risk to moderate risk, such as center of Shanxi and Shaanxi, south of Ningxia and northwest of Yunnan. Our results indicate that global warming have a positive effect on the growth of O.acuta.HYSPLIT atmospheric dispersion model simulated the diffusion of O.acuta. The result showed that the mealybug can reach Chongqing, Zhejiang, Hubei, Henan, Hainan, Guizhou, Fujian and Anhui provinces by wind, especially the neighboring provinces of epidemic such as Hainan, Fujian, Zhejiang, Hubei and Guizhou provinces.This potential distribution of O.acuta has been predicted for the first time by the ArcGIS software and CLIMEX model. Moreover, we get the spatio-temporal map of shift of the suitable distribution ranges toward northern latitudes for O.acuta under global warming. Meanwhile, this is the first time applying HYSPLIT model to simulate the spread trend of O.acuta. We suggest that quarantine and monitoring measures should be improved and to better prevent the spread and expansion of O.acuta in China.