| As we all know,meteorological disasters are the most of important disasters in the world.So we choose four influential disasters from them to discover the effect that they have on the agriculture in Jiangxi province.The 19 report pointed out that the problem of rural farmers is an elemental issue which is related to the national economy and people’s livelihood.As the top priority of the whole party,it is necessary to solve the problem of "three peasants" all the time to ensure the country’s food security,and to put the Chinese rice bowls firmly in their own hands.China is a big agricultural country,and agriculture is the foundation.On the one hand,if agricultural development falls behind,farmers ’ living standards can not be improved,which in turn affects the stability of society as a whole.On the other hand,agricultural development is the foundation of national economic development,so we must attach importance to agricultural development.Jiangxi Province as a large agricultural province,the importance of agriculture in the province’s economic development is self-evident.The planting area of food crops in the province accounts for 60%-70% of the total crop sown areas,and rapeseed cultivation accounts for a large proportion of the cultivation of cash crops,but at the same time,the frequent meteorological disasters in the province have brought negative effects on the cultivation of crops that can not be ignored.Therefore,this paper analyzes the main meteorological disaster data and the main crop yield in Jiangxi Province in 1978-2016 years,in order to quantify the impact of different disasters on agricultural production,so as to put forward corresponding suggestions.Firstly,through the grey correlation analysis of four kinds of main meteorological disasters and the total area affected by the whole province,the correlation degree between flood,drought,hail,low temperature frozen and total area of disaster is obtained,and it is considered that flood and drought are the main meteorological disasters affecting the disaster in Jiangxi Province,so flood and drought should be the focus of disaster prevention.Secondly,by analyzing the influence of different meteorological disasters on the yield changes of four kinds of main cultivated crops(pulses,cereals,potatoes,rapeseed)in the whole dynamic system,it is concluded that drought and flood have the greatest influence on grain,which can explain 11.3% and 2.53% of grain yield change respectively,and the wind hail and flood have the greatest influence on pulses.It can explain about 5.32% and 4.41% of the change of legume yield respectively,and the flood and hail have the greatest influence on the yield of potato crops in four kinds of major meteorological disasters,which can explain the change of 2.57% and 0.95% respectively.For the analysis of rapeseed yield,flood and hail are the main factors affecting their yield,which can explain about 14.8% and 12.5% of their changes respectively.Finally,using the existing data about the area of different meteorological disasters through the GM(1,1)model after five years of disaster area prediction,it is concluded that in the following period of time,the drought area shows a fluctuating state,flood disaster shows a slow rise,hail,frozen shows a downward trend,It is suggested that drought preparedness in the short term will remain the focus of disaster prevention and mitigation in the near future,and that emphasis should be placed on measures to strengthen grain drought prevention,with a focus on strengthening its approach to waterlogging for legumes and potato crops. |
PDF Full Text Request