Livestock Management On The Basis Of Cropland Distribution

Since the implementation of the shopping basket program,China's livestock sector has undergone a tremendous transformation,and China has become the world's largest producer and consumer of livestock products in recent years.With the increasing number of livestock,the feeding model has gradually changed from traditional farmer backyard to large-scale farm.This change in the owner of livestock means that fanning activities are no longer based on regional cropland.Manure,which cannot be absorbed from cropland,becomes sources of pollution,and feed is becoming increasingly dependent on imports.It breaks the link between crop and livestock industries in China,brings adverse affects on China's food security,soil health,air and water quality.Therefore,it is the key to re-couple livestock and planting by the management of livestock based on the distribution of cropland.This will contribute to the green development of China's livestock industry,ensure the sustainable use of cropland,and migatate agricultural non-point source pollution.Here,this study uses data mining,literature analysis and nitrogen(N)nutrient balance method to quantify the relationship between cropland and livestock in China's current agricultural system from the perspectives of agricultural production and citizens'consumption based on the distribution of cropland in every province.Meanwhile,through the method of scenario simulation,we build the layout plan of livestock breeding based on the scale of regional cropland and the control scheme of total livestock numbers based on the reasonable diet of residents.Furtheremore,the Monte Carlo analysis method is introduced to quantitatively evaluate the uncertainty of the calculation results.Our results show that in China's agricultural areas,livestock excreted 14.6 Tg N in 2015 and based on current trends,the excretion of livestock will increase to 15.0 Tg N,with 10.5 Tg N losing in 2030.The amount of manure that can be absorbed by cropland is only 11.5 Tg N,which indicates that on the national scale,the number of livestock in China will exceed 30%of the manure capacity of cropland.At the same time,the feed shortage will amount to 43%.On the other hand,from the perspective of resident's consumption,the total consumption of animal food by residents exceeds about 1/3 of the average recommended amount,which indicates that the supply of animal food in China exceeds the reasonable dietary range.In addition,after improving the manure management process of livestock,the loss of livestock manure nitrogen will be reduced to 1.0?1.2 Tg N.This is conducive to the prevention and control of sustainable use of soil and non-point source pollution,while ensuring food security and the health of residents in China.Therefore,we propose the solution for the coordinated development of livestock breeding and cropland distribution,the prevention and control of non-point source pollution.Firstly,the top-level design should be carried out for livestock sector based on the cropland distribution and manure nitrogen carrying capacity of local cropland,so as to optimize the layout of regional livestock production,recoupling the links of livestock industry and croplad;Meanwhile,residents should be encouraged to balance the diet and the livestock should be reduced from the perspective of rational consumption.On this basis,the utilization rate of manure returned to cropland should be increased,and the process management of manure production-collection-storage-application should be improved to reduce the loss of nutrients.