Study On The Risk Identification And Influenceing Factors Of Forage Land Circulation

Forage land is the basis of the development of modern animal husbandry,and is the guarantee of the relocation of herdsmen.Aletai area is an area inhabited by ethnic herdsmen,Forage land in the reasonable and orderly transfer of security and even social stability in border areas and economic development is essential for the production and the improvement of life of minority rights.However,there are some serious problems in the reality of the forage land,which have great impact on the interests of the herdsmen and the policy implementation.Study on forage land transfer risk,to better prevent and reduce the forage land transfer crisis events occur in the process,and then put forward the risk prevention measures to improve the forage land transfer,has important practical meaning for the development of animal husbandry to achieve stable and harmonious society,so the study room is very necessary.Based on the risk prevention of forage land transfer as the starting point,combined with existing research on risk,the risk identification model based on system dynamics was established to identify the interaction and interaction of various risk factors in the complex system of forage grass land transfer.In addition,based on the questionnaire survey of 18 villages of 3 counties in Aletai,to construct the regression model of the risk factors of herdsman forage land transfer,and analyze the risk factors from the point of view of herdsmen.The results show that the stepwise regression model of risk:participation in social insurance,pasture transfer reasons,credit opportunities,herdsmen forage land area,currently has the ability to pay,medical treatment by means of livestock feeding,forage land transfer forms.All of the above factors are related to the production and management risk,the rights and interests of herdsmen,social stability risk,ecological environment risk and policy risk.Finally,according to the risk of forage land circulation dynamics model of risk identification system of feedback loop,one by one put forward the suggestions on the risk,in order to forage land transfer risk in the program to effectively prevent and avoid the effect.