| Matsucoccu matsumurae, belonging to Margarodidae, Homoptera, is a destructive pest of pine trees. The quantitative pest risk analysis to Matsucoccus matsumurae was carried out and mathematic models were set up, based on states of emergence size of Matsucoccus matsumurae and weather in eastern Liaoning through the years. The results are as follows:1. Model of emergence size of Matsucoccus matsumurae Take insect density of 2rd larvae of winter generation of Matsucoccus matsumurae as induced variables and take biological and climatic factors about insect density of 2rd larvae as independent variables, we had set up two models of different marked level by stepwise regression. (1) The marked level in stepwise regression is 0.05 and 0.10 Y=-0.903X53+0.576X51+0.319X43-0.049 (2) The marked level in stepwise regression is 0.15 and 0.20 Y=-0.853X53+0.784X51+0.471X43+0.096X13+0.245X86-0.189X57-0.016X42-0.00 3X55-0.0622. Model of emergence period of Matsucoccus matsumurae Take emergence period of 2rd larvae of winter generation of Matsucoccus matsumurae as induced variables and take biological and climatic factors about emergence period of 2rd larvae as independent variables, we had set up two models of different marked level by stepwise regression. (1) The model of first emergence period Y1=0.992 Y2+0.018(The marked level is 0.05 and 0.10) Y1=1.015 Y2-0.280X37+0.431X39-0.256X33-0.184X38+0.005(The marked level is 0.15 and 0.20) (2) The model of the inception of peak Y2=0.956 Y3-0.014(The marked level is 0.05 and 0.10) Y2=2.069Y3+0.593X40-0.609X43+0.224X33+0.408X44-0.381Y1-0.036X51+0.00 1X45-0.034(The marked level is 0.15 and 0.20) (3) The model of the peak of emergence period Y3=1.070 Y2+0.247X56+0.072(The marked level is 0.05 and 0.10) Y3=0.478Y2+0.122X56-0.229X44+0.404Y1-0.059X41+0.040Y4-0.009X45-0.00 1X46+0.075(The marked level is 0.15 and 0.20) (4) The model of the end of peak period Y4=0.926 Y5+0.425X55+0.002(The marked level is 0.05 and 0.10) Y4=0.980Y5+0.287X55+0.549X41+0.475X57+0.100X50-0.091X42+0.081X40+0.010X46-0.013(The marked level is 0.15 and 0.20) (5) The model of the end of emergence period Y5=0.925X57-0.358X53+0.074(The marked level is 0.05 and 0.10) Y5=0.925X57-0.358X53+0.074(The marked level is 0.15 and 0.20)3. Fuzzy grade series for emergence size of Matsucoccus matsumurae According to the gread standard of Matsucoccus matsumurae in east of Liaoning province, we had determined the sequences of emergence size of Matsucoccus matsumurae from 1986-2010.4. Fuzzy grade series for harmfulness of Matsucoccus matsumurae According to the analyzing for descriptives statistics of emergence area of Matsucoccus matsumurae in east of Liaoning province from 1980 to 2010, we had determine the values of different grades harmfulness of Matsucoccus matsumurae. C1=2.17;C2=34.65;C3=49.40;C4=57.11;C5=85.82.5. Model of probability distribution of emergence grade of Matsucoccus matsumurae According to Monte Carlo simulation and distribution pattern test of emergence grade of Matsucoccus matsumurae in east of Liaoning province from 1986 to 2010, the values of Sig(2‐t ailed) is 0.12>0.05, we had determined that the sequences of emergence grade is up to normal distribution(μ=1.96,σ2=0.707) and had got the values of probability of different grades. P1=0.2245; P2=0.5634;P3=0.1913; P4=0.0087; P5=5.45e-005 6. Model of risk analyzing of Matsucoccus matsumuraeUsing this model, Matsucoccus matsumurae was evaluated. The result showed that the risk values of different grade was as follow: R1=0.4872;R2=19.5218;R3=9.4502; R4=0.4969; R5=4.68e-003, the total risk value is 5.99. Besides, the model can be used to predict for the risk of Matsucoccus matsumurae. |
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