| Objective:In this study,the daily data analysis of Chengdu,Luzhou and Nanchong cities from 2014 to 2016 was used to describe the incidence of intestinal infectious diseases caused by floods.The sensitive intestines related to floods were screened to determine the optimal lag time for floods.The risk of intestinal infectious diseases caused by floods.To evaluate the impact of floods on the incidence of diseases.On the one hand,it provides a theoretical basis for the impact of rainstorm and flood on the risk of intestinal infectious diseases,ensuring that the health department can take preventive measures in time during the epidemic of intestinal infectious diseases;at the same time,verify the relationship between meteorology and intestinal infectious diseases,and respond to future climate Changing the applicability strategy provides theoretical evidence.Methods:Daily flood and intestinal infectious disease data from 2014 to 2016 were applied to this study.First,descriptive analysis was used to describe the occurrence of disease and meteorological data.According to the breeding period of pathogens and the incubation period of intestinal infectious diseases,the peak incidence is usually within two months after the occurrence of rainstorm,so the longest lag period in this study is set at 60 days.The Wilcoxon rank-sum test was used to compare the daily incidence of intestinal infectious diseases on flood days and non-flood days,and the initial screening of intestinal infectious diseases was statistically significant.The disease was considered to be a flood-related sensitive intestinal infectious disease.Second,Spearman rank correlation was used for categorical variables,and crosscorrelation analysis was used for continuous variables to determine the optimal lag time for flood-sensitive diseases.When the difference is statistically significant,the number of lag days corresponding to the maximum correlation coefficient is determined as the optimal lag period,and the data of the lag days is adjusted to analyze the impact of floods and meteorological factors on disease.Finally,the daily incidence rate is the result variable,the adjusted flood variable for the lag period is the analysis variable,and the seasonal,weekly,and adjusted meteorological variables for the respective lag periods are the control variables.The time series Poisson regression is used to explore floods and sensitive intestinal infectious diseases Relationship.The difference was statistically significant at P <0.05.All data analysis was performed using SPSS 24.0 and R 2.3.1 statistical software.Results:1.Descriptive results showed that the incidence of intestinal infectious diseases in Chengdu,Luzhou and Nanchong varies from 2014 to 2016.In Chengdu,the incidence of bacterial dysentery,other infectious diarrheal diseases and hand-foot and mouth disease decrease first and then increased,hepatitis A decreased,and the Hepatitis E,typhoid and paratyphoid increased.In Luzhou,the incidence of bacterial dysentery,hepatitis A,other infectious diarrhea,typhoid and paratyphoid fever was on the rise,while the incidence of hepatitis E,hand-foot and mouth disease was first decreased and then rising.In Nanchong,the incidence of hepatitis A,hepatitis E,typhoid fever and paratyphoid fever showed an upward trend,and the incidence of bacterial dysentery showed a decreasing trend,and the incidence of other infectious diarrhea diseases and hand-foot and mouth disease decreased first and then increased.2.Wilcoxon rank-sum test results showed that Chengdu 's flood-related sensitive diseases were bacterial dysentery and hand-foot-mouth disease.Luzhou 's flood-related sensitive disease was hepatitis A,and Nanchong 's flood-related sensitive diseases were bacterial dysentery,typhoid and paratyphoid.3.Spearman rank correlation results show that the lag time of Chengdu floods for bacterial dysentery and hand-foot-mouth disease is 4th and 36 days respectively;the best lag time of Luzhou floods for hepatitis A is 39 days;Nanchong floods for bacterial dysentery The lag time of typhoid,paratyphoid and paratyphoid was on the 11 th and 47 th days,respectively.4.Cross-correlation results showed that the daily average temperature,daily average relative humidity,and 24-hour rainfall were related to sensitive intestinal infectious diseases with different lag times.5.Time series Poisson regression results show that after effectively controlling lag,long-term trends,seasonal and weekly effects,the study found that flooding as a risk factor for sensitive intestinal infectious diseases can significantly increase the incidence of the disease.The RR value of the impact of Chengdu flood on the incidence of bacterial dysentery and hand-foot-mouth disease was 2.811(95%CI=2.566-3.114)and 3.134(95%CI=2.862-3.425),respectively;In Luzhou,the RR value of the impact of floods on the incidence of hepatitis A was 2.535(95%CI=2.291-2.833).In Nanchong,the RR values of the impact of floods on the incidence of bacterial dysentery,typhoid and paratyphoid were 2.751(95%CI=2.597-2.922)and 3.031(95%CI=2.696-3.422),respectively.Conclusion:1.Chengdu 's flood-related sensitive diseases were bacterial dysentery and handfoot-mouth disease.Luzhou 's flood-related sensitive disease was hepatitis A,and Nanchong 's flood-related sensitive diseases were bacterial dysentery,typhoid and paratyphoid.2.Floods and meteorological factors have a lagging effect on the incidence of sensitive intestinal infectious diseases in Chengdu,Luzhou and Nanchong.3.Floods as a risk factor for diseases can significantly increase the risk of intestinal infectious diseases,which suggests that we need to formulate effective health control measures after floods to reduce the risk of intestinal infectious diseases related to floods. |
PDF Full Text Request