Based On The Extreme Floods And High Uncertainty Overflowing Crest Risk Analysis Of The Dam And Software Development

With demand for water resources increased,Water shortages in the 21st century become an important factor which restrains China's rapid economic growth. In the background of the government makes the decision to speed up reinforcing and repairing small reservoirs, assure the reservoirs won't over flooded during the flood season, the research on how to get flood resource controllable and safe is a key issue which the reservoirs must bear in order to take the over-flooded risk. Considering the uncertainty of extreme floods in-let and out-let, this article adopts the BurrⅫdistribution function to inquire into the design of the reservoirs, builds the flood risk model of reservoirs and develops related analysis software. We hope to solve the underestimate of the flood risk in traditional analysis, providing reference for the project development, management and maintenance.We are going to discuss these issues in five parts which are followed:1.Elaborating the background on this research, domestic and international development and the problems we still face, putting forward the main content and technical methods.2.According to the BurrⅫdistribution function to calculate the in-let flood, we solve the difficulties of repeats of the statistically parameter when calculating the flood design, man-made shortage of judging simulation effect and the locality underestimate of the flood risk. Calculation is more convenient and brief.3.Considering the uncertainty of in-let flood, initial conditions of flood-adjusting and the capacity of out-let flood, the boundary conditions between water level's superficial connection in discharging the flood, we build over-flooded risk model under the giant waves so as to analyze the over-flooded risk quantificationally.4.Base on computer technology and over-flooded model, we use Visual basic 6.0 programming language, R language and FORTRAN language to develop the over-flooded risk analyzing system which focus on extreme flood and uncertainty of out-let flood.5.Taking face rockfill dam of Jiangping River for example, we use the developed dam over-flooded risk system to calculate the designed work procedure and the check the possibility of over flooding. With the sensitive analyze of the limited level of flood control and the normal capacity of sluice, we can figure out the trend of the over-flooded risk of dam, Ultimately, we can put forward the suggestions about reasonable usage of the reservoirs.