Simulation Research On Ship's Backlog Grooming Strategy For Three Gorges Dam Based On Anti-fragile

With the surge of demand for ship's dam-crossing,the demand for ship lock's dam-crossing is far beyond its capacity.Due to the restriction of navigation environment,ship lock's shutdown and overhaul,and unexpected accidents on water,ship's lock-crossing is seriously affected.The backlog situation of ship in front of dam is becoming more and more serious,which seriously affects the development of golden waterway.Combining with the existing research,there are few quantitative studies on ship backlog mitigation in the Three Gorges Ship Lock,and there are some deficiencies in the research.Through quantitative research on ship backlog mitigation strategy in front of dam,the current situation of ship backlog mitigation in front of dam can be effectively alleviated.Based on the anti-fragility concept,this paper studies the backlogging strategy of the Three Gorges ship locks.The core idea of "anti-fragility" is to profit from uncertainty.The Three Gorges ship lock is restricted and affected by various factors,resulting in a severe backlog,increasing the probability of accidents in ships,and facing the unpredictable risks.The problem of ship backlog is a perplexity to the safe and stable development of the Three Gorges Lock.Effective dredging strategies are adopted to alleviate the backlog situation and achieve the goal of anti-fragile development of the Three Gorges Lock.The implementation of the dredging strategies to promote the anti-fragile ability of the system is the key to solve the problem from a long-term perspective.This paper firstly introduced the navigation situation of ships passing through the Three Gorges Gate and the backlog of anchorage in front of the dam,analysed the causes of backlog of ships in front of the dam,and put forward four strategies for dredging backlog of ships.When constructing the model of the ship's backlog of the dam,dredging the ship is a dynamic and complicated process,so to set up model by cellular automaton model.According to the navigation path of ship and the ship crossing process,the navigation field,cell size,lock and anchorage and diversion port parameters of the ship were respectively set.Then the model boundaries were set,ship navigation evolution rules were stipulated,such as basic navigation module,anchor docking module,ship crossing module,and separate port berthing operation module,it formed a cellular automaton model for the backlog of the Three Gorges ship lock.According to the historical data,setting parameters,validating the validity of the model,changing the parameters of the model according to the four strategies respectively,and then inputting them into the model simulation.By comparing the simulation results,the anti-vulnerability level of the system after the implementation of the strategy was calculated,and the anti-vulnerability evacuation strategy for evacuating ships was obtained.According to the results of model simulation,the simulation results of the pre-dam diversion and transportation strategy are the best among the four grooming strategies,followed by the prohibition of dangerous goods ship crossing strategy.The ship standardization strategy has the worst effect on the dredging and consolidating ship;Ship standardization Strategy can obviously increase the quantity of the shipments of lock.The strategy of prohibiting dangerous goods ships from overturning has great influence,and it can be used when backlog level is high.The system anti-fragility level is high after the implementation of diversion strategy in front of dam,which is the best dredging strategy for backlog of ships in front of dam.The research results can provide reference for inland river management departments to formulate scientific and reasonable measures to alleviate ship backlog and assist decision-making needs.